20 Lowerre Ln · East Durham, NY 12418

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Home located on quite serene area of Cornwallville/East Durham area. Home has been updated and being sold as is.

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 2.9% in East Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $99k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.13%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $94,075
• Equity at exit: $50,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.97×
• Total profit: $221,024
• Equity at exit: $81,812

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12418

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,263	-5% $1,235	+0% $1,207	+5% $1,179	+10% $1,151
Rent	-10% $1,018	-5% $1,112	+0% $1,207	+5% $1,302	+10% $1,397
Rate	-1.0pp $1,257	-0.5pp $1,232	base $1,207	+0.5pp $1,181	+1.0pp $1,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Brown Rd East Durham, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	24d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 112-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 62.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $13,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,295
• After-tax cash flow: $11,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Durham

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,033
• Population (ZIP): 321

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Current HPI: 445.7105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+340.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $99,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.