4539 Kay Cir · Grifton, NC 28530

$65,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1967 0.32 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Quiet circle
• Functional layout

Tags

• QUIET CIRCLE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LOT
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 4.5% in Grifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#444 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.50%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,724
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4580 Kay Cir	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,055 (+2%)	0mo	$168,000	$159	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $11,341
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $38,766
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28530

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,059

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

3. 2026-03-09
   price $65,000 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

4. 2026-03-09
   price $65,000

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

5. 2026-01-29
   price $85,000 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

6. 2026-01-29
   price $85,000

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

7. 2026-01-09
   listed $120,000 Active 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

8. 2026-01-09
   listed $120,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Investors Welcome! 4539 Kay Circle in Grifton, NC, an adorable home tucked away on a quiet circle offering comfort, privacy, and small-town living. This property features a functional layout with 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and inviting living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home sits on a generous lot, providing room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or relax in a peaceful neighborhood. Home Sold as-is

9. 2023-11-28
   status Pending
10. 2023-05-07
    status Pending
11. 2023-05-05
    historical
12. 2023-05-04
    status Active
13. 2023-04-04
    status Pending
14. 2023-03-14
    price $65,000
15. 2023-03-09
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$26/yr (+$2/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$5,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$846
• After-tax cash flow: $3,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Grifton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #16371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,055

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.30%
• Current HPI: 201.1297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-23.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $65,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $65,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $85,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $85,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $120,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $120,000 TMLS
• 2023-11-28 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-05-07 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-05-05 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2023-05-04 Relisted — TMLS
• 2023-04-04 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-03-14 Price Changed $65,000 TMLS
• 2023-03-09 Listed $85,000 TMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $507 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.