17 Lake Prom · Holbrook, NY 11779

$399,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1953 7,405 sqft lot Est $748k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity To Renovate A Sweet Ranch Home In Perfect Lake Ronkonkoma Location! This Solidly Built Home Offers 3 Good Sized Bedrooms With Large Closets, 1 Full Bath, A Young Architectural Shingle Roof, Large Rear Addition With Outside Entrance, Back Patio, Full Size Attic, Gas Forced Air Heating, All On A Flat Corner Lot That Would Also Support A Much Larger Home. Under A Mile To Lake Ronkonkoma And Major Expressways And 1.5 Miles to The LIRR. Grab Your Spring Project NOW Or Roll Up Your Sleeves And Build Your Sweat Equity Today!

Key facts

• Large rear addition
• Outside entrance
• Full size attic

Tags

• LARGE REAR ADDITION
• OUTSIDE ENTRANCE
• BACK PATIO
• FULL SIZE ATTIC
• GAS FORCED AIR HEATING
• FLAT CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Holbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Chippewa Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 515 students, 25% FRL); Samoset Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 892 students, 31% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 175 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $747,648
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Center St	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,000 (-5%)	7mo	$665,000	$333	65
27 Donald St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (+4%)	7mo	$725,000	$330	59
16 Tarkington Rd	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,200 (+4%)	8mo	$700,000	$318	54
2 Richard Pl	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,830 (-13%)	5mo	$714,000	$390	50
150 Coates Ave N	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,134 (+1%)	9mo	$690,000	$323	49
22 Hollo Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,062 (-2%)	8mo	$730,000	$354	49
2 Alan St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (-12%)	6mo	$695,000	$375	47
25 Windham Ln	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,925 (-9%)	1mo	$630,000	$327	46
45 Marc St	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,039 (-4%)	12mo	$720,000	$353	44
25 Lincoln Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,937 (-8%)	3mo	$735,000	$379	42
9 Jamar Ln	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,836 (-13%)	9mo	$690,000	$376	36
110 Geery Ave	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (-15%)	10mo	$750,000	$417	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-61,643
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-72,582
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$785 /mo · $9,420/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$858
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,853

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $296	+0% $183	+5% $70	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $22	+0% $183	+5% $344	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $285	base $183	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,009	$5.22	0d	130	1.23mi
16 Birch Dr Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$4,250	$2.77	25d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $399,000 Active
3. 2004-09-23
   soldstatus $350,000
4. 2000-04-06
   soldstatus $165,000
5. 1998-05-28
   soldstatus $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,420 · $785/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,420 · $785/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$9,420
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,921
• − Management: −$3,921
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$4,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $3,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 26,667
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+136.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,420 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.