2633 Tates Creek Rd · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40475

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1972 0.50 ac lot $40/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special with Creek Views ? Endless Potential Near Tates Creek...Opportunity is knocking! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper is the perfect project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a custom getaway retreat. Located in a peaceful setting with Tates Creek running directly behind the property, this home offers a rare backdrop that adds long-term value and short-term rental appeal. Inside, you?ll find a traditional layout ready for renovation. The home requires significant updates and repairs but with the right improvements, this property could become a charming primary residence, weekend escape, or income-producing short-term rental. Outside features include the following: A detached garage (in need of repair-not currently safe to park in-can park on the side of the road on the other side of the garage), Rear deck overlooking the creek (repair/replacement needed), Beautiful year-round creek views and natural setting. The serene water feature behind the home creates a peaceful atmosphere that today's buyers and Airbnb guests are actively searching for. Properties with natural scenery and water access continue to stand out in the short-term rental market. Important Notes: Property is being sold as-is, where-is. Seller makes no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, regarding the condition of the property. This home shares a septic with the neighbors currently and will need its own. All inspections are welcome, but property will not qualify for traditional financing in its current condition. Buyer to verify all aspects of the property including square footage, lot boundaries, flood zone status, property features and amenities and suitability for intended use, including short-term rental potential. If you're looking for your next renovation project with built-in charm and creekside appeal, this is one you won't want to miss.

Key facts

• Creek views
• Natural setting
• Rear deck

Tags

• CREEK VIEWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• REAR DECK
• NATURAL SETTING
• WATER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $75k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.76%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,549
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -54.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2616 Tates Creek Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,700 (-10%)	14mo	$255,000	$150	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $31,024
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $81,902
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40475

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $283/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $724	-5% $703	+0% $682	+5% $661	+10% $639
Rent	-10% $562	-5% $622	+0% $682	+5% $742	+10% $802
Rate	-1.0pp $720	-0.5pp $701	base $682	+0.5pp $662	+1.0pp $643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $75,000 Active 1891-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1891 chars)

    Investor Special with Creek Views ? Endless Potential Near Tates Creek...Opportunity is knocking! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper is the perfect project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a custom getaway retreat. Located in a peaceful setting with Tates Creek running directly behind the property, this home offers a rare backdrop that adds long-term value and short-term rental appeal. Inside, you?ll find a traditional layout ready for renovation. The home requires significant updates and repairs but with the right improvements, this property could become a charming primary residence, weekend escape, or income-producing short-term rental. Outside features include the following: A detached garage (in need of repair-not currently safe to park in-can park on the side of the road on the other side of the garage), Rear deck overlooking the creek (repair/replacement needed), Beautiful year-round creek views and natural setting. The serene water feature behind the home creates a peaceful atmosphere that today's buyers and Airbnb guests are actively searching for. Properties with natural scenery and water access continue to stand out in the short-term rental market. Important Notes: Property is being sold as-is, where-is. Seller makes no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, regarding the condition of the property. This home shares a septic with the neighbors currently and will need its own. All inspections are welcome, but property will not qualify for traditional financing in its current condition. Buyer to verify all aspects of the property including square footage, lot boundaries, flood zone status, property features and amenities and suitability for intended use, including short-term rental potential. If you're looking for your next renovation project with built-in charm and creekside appeal, this is one you won't want to miss.

17. 2026-02-02
    historical
18. 2025-10-23
    price $80,000
19. 2025-10-01
    price $95,000
20. 2025-09-20
    price $105,000
21. 2025-08-15
    price $125,000
22. 2025-07-30
    listed $150,000 Active
23. 2024-09-09
    historical
24. 2024-08-17
    listed $85,000 Active
25. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
26. 2023-12-04
    historical Contingent
27. 2023-09-28
    price $49,500
28. 2023-09-15
    status Active
29. 2023-08-28
    historical Contingent
30. 2023-08-09
    price $39,500
31. 2023-07-11
    price $46,500
32. 2023-06-19
    price $49,500
33. 2023-05-27
    listed $50,000 Active
34. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus $28,277
35. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus $28,277
36. 2010-12-09
    historical
37. 2010-07-02
    listed $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $283 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 128.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$283
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $7,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,783
• After-tax cash flow: $6,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 2103720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,590
• Composite: 32.99/100
• National rank: #5580
• State rank: #35 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 93,568 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• Population (ZIP): 65,961
• Household income: $63,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2031.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,241 people
• By 2030: 104,927 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 116,079 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 127,293 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 155,644 · +56.8%
• By 2100: 176,488 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.6% · R 64.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+31.2 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.04%
• Current HPI: 245.8489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $75,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $80,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $95,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $105,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $125,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-09-09 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-08-17 Listed $85,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $30,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-12-04 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $49,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-09-15 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2023-08-28 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2023-08-09 Price Changed $39,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $46,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-06-19 Price Changed $49,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-05-27 Listed $50,000 ImagineMLS
• 2010-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $28,277 Public Records
• 2010-12-17 Sold (MLS) $28,277 ImagineMLS
• 2010-12-09 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2010-07-02 Listed $30,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $283 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.