2302 Squire Ln #40 · Santa Rosa, CA 95404

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 344 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $186k · 27% under ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2302 Squire Lane at Carriage Court Mobile Home Park, a Harmony Community! This beautifully designed mobile home offers comfort and style with a great floor plan and well maintained garden. Enjoy a cozy neighborhood setting with convenient access to local amenities, parks, and walking trails.

Key facts

• Local amenities
• Walking trails
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED GARDEN
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,210
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking for 2 vehicles; No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide)
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Manufactured home make: Lancer
• Exterior features: Located in Carriage Court mobile home park; Park land-lease community

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tubs with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Compact kitchen area; Unfurnished unit
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.11%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,820
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2313 Calico Ln #67	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	16mo	$187,000	$173	76
116 Coachman Ln #27	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-8%)	11mo	$237,950	$227	70
305 Aileen Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	0mo	$105,000	$95	69
38 Wayside Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	9mo	$205,000	$197	69
220 Ricardo Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	1mo	$179,000	$163	68
205 Pear Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-3%)	8mo	$160,000	$145	56
275 Ricardo Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	9mo	$190,000	$152	53
196 Pear Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,106 (-3%)	14mo	$165,000	$149	50
324 Aileen Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,060 (-7%)	21mo	$173,500	$164	45
227 Ricardo Ave #227	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-7%)	22mo	$227,000	$215	45
102 Apple Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+7%)	19mo	$127,000	$104	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $41,826
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $105,863
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95404

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,168	-5% $1,121	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,028	+10% $981
Rent	-10% $874	-5% $974	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,175	+10% $1,275
Rate	-1.0pp $1,142	-0.5pp $1,109	base $1,074	+0.5pp $1,039	+1.0pp $1,004

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
325 Yolanda Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,852	$2.49	14d	15	0.19mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2130-101 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,450	$2.66	14d	1	0.27mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	14d	1	0.27mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	14d	1	0.28mi
2327 Summercreek Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,920	$2.69	14d	6	0.33mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,860	$3.21	14d	27	0.36mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,892	$3.09	14d	8	0.38mi
2350 Corby Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,185	$2.42	14d	1	0.41mi
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	14d	10	0.44mi
2150 Onyx Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$3,000	$2.42	21d	1	0.44mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	14d	3	0.44mi
2585 Kenton Ct Unit B Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	789	$2,150	$2.72	14d	1	0.54mi
524 Court St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.5	1171	$2,750	$2.35	14d	1	0.68mi
517 Debbie Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,000	$2.49	21d	1	0.86mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,874	$1.86	14d	1	1.01mi
651 Maple Ave #2 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	1.5	938	$2,800	$2.99	14d	1	1.11mi
1053 Dutton Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$2,200	$2.59	14d	1	1.11mi
927 Delport Ave Unit 2 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	1.0	751	$2,500	$3.33	14d	1	1.20mi
927 Delport Ave Unit 4 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	1.0	751	$2,500	$3.33	14d	1	1.20mi
447 S E St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,900	$2.42	14d	1	1.28mi
300 Brown St Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	1.5	1193	$3,200	$2.68	14d	1	1.35mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	14d	1	1.39mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 3075 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,850	$2.72	14d	1	1.39mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   status $135,000 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 341 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 339 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 338 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 336 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 335 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 334 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 333 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 330 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 329 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 328 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 327 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 326 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Contingent (Show) 325 DOM
18. 2025-12-17
    historical Contingent (Show)
19. 2025-09-11
    price $135,000
20. 2025-08-18
    price $145,000
21. 2025-07-10
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,439
• − Management: −$2,439
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $11,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,742
• After-tax cash flow: $10,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,011
• Household income: $105,437
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -797.65%
• Current HPI: 244.7593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $135,000 BAREIS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $145,000 BAREIS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $150,000 BAREIS