11743 Purdue St · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$197,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 511 Days on market

Built 2022 0.49 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH PURCHASE ONLY 3 Bedrooms 2 Baths in this Doublewide Mobile home on 4 lots with woodland view in Moon Lake Estates. Master Bathroom is a dream with separate shower and deep soaking tub in large bathroom with a dressing room! Living Room has tiled foyer entrance and Vaulted ceiling with ceiling fan. Large kitchen has room for cozy dining and there is also a dining room. Open and spacious floor plan. Home remodeled inside and out with new tile and carpet flooring. Refrigerator, dishwasher, range, washer and dryer, water heater and water filtration system are included. Home has new well and new septic. Fenced front yard and privacy fenced back yard. Landscaped with beautiful mature trees.

Key facts

• New well
• Fenced back yard
• New septic

Tags

• NEW WELL
• NEW SEPTIC
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• FENCED BACK YARD
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned AR; Lot is private, cleared, level, oversized, unpaved with gravel road and privately maintained road; Vegetation includes fruit trees, oak trees, mature landscaping and wooded areas; Approximately 0.35 acre lot (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); One well and one septic on property; Living area approx. 1,480 sq ft; total building area approx. 1,600 sq ft; Estimated building area source; living area reported by owner; Direction to property: Take Moon Lake Road to Oconee Blvd, turn left onto Purdue Street; property on the left
• Financial info: Unfurnished; No home warranty
• HOA & community: No association fee required; Community amenities include park, playground, recreation facilities; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking listed
• Security: Fire alarm; Security fencing/lighting/alarms; Security lights; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Facing east; Completed condition; Accessible features throughout (accessible bedroom, closets, doors, full bath, kitchen, appliances, washer/dryer, hallways, common area)
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Built on block/crawlspace with pillar/post/pier foundation; Double wide body type
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Side porch; Exterior lighting; Wood fencing; Community lake access with boat ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Water filtration system; Stone countertops; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Stone countertops; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds, drapes, rods)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry room inside/in kitchen; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $197k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: River Ridge High School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,802 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 511 days — a 12% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 511 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,146
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,571
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $707/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $197,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $510	+0% $454	+5% $398	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $291	-5% $372	+0% $454	+5% $535	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $553	-0.5pp $504	base $454	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	0.19mi
12036 Tasha Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,155	$1.24	4d	1	0.38mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	24d	1	0.48mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	0.49mi
11920 Palm Bay Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	18d	1	0.66mi
11920 Palm Bay Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	13d	1	0.66mi
12316 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,150	$1.32	4d	1	0.76mi
12065 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	18d	1	0.80mi
12250 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,200	$1.35	24d	1	0.82mi
12245 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1207	$2,280	$1.89	24d	1	0.82mi
12909 Walnut Tree Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,095	$1.17	4d	1	1.18mi
11925 Greengate Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,200	$1.32	13d	1	1.28mi
11903 Greengate Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,900	$1.14	24d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 511 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,000 Active 506 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 502 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,000 Active 501 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,000 Active 500 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $197,000 Active 497 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 496 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,000 Active 495 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,000 Active 494 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,000 Active 493 DOM
14. 2026-02-19
    price $197,000
15. 2026-02-04
    price $198,000
16. 2026-02-04
    price $19,800
17. 2026-01-06
    price $199,900
18. 2025-11-06
    price $200,000
19. 2025-11-01
    price $203,000
20. 2025-10-22
    price $204,000
21. 2025-09-11
    price $205,000
22. 2025-09-09
    price $206,000
23. 2025-08-30
    price $207,000
24. 2025-08-11
    price $208,000
25. 2025-07-28
    price $209,000
26. 2025-07-24
    price $210,000
27. 2025-07-07
    price $211,000
28. 2025-07-01
    price $212,000
29. 2025-06-11
    price $213,000
30. 2025-05-22
    price $214,000
31. 2025-05-17
    price $215,000
32. 2025-05-13
    price $216,000
33. 2025-05-04
    price $217,000
34. 2025-04-22
    price $218,000
35. 2025-03-20
    price $219,000
36. 2025-03-13
    price $220,000
37. 2025-03-03
    price $221,000
38. 2025-02-27
    price $222,000
39. 2025-02-16
    price $223,000
40. 2025-02-09
    price $224,000
41. 2025-01-23
    listed $225,000 Active
42. 2024-11-30
    historical
43. 2024-01-04
    status Active
44. 2023-12-31
    historical
45. 2023-12-13
    price $225,000
46. 2023-05-18
    price $220,000
47. 2023-04-19
    price $225,000
48. 2023-04-07
    price $238,000
49. 2023-04-03
    price $239,000
50. 2023-03-06
    price $240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $707 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,635 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$929/yr (+$77/mo · 131.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$707
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable income: $2,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$555
• After-tax cash flow: $4,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.7% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $197,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $19,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $203,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $204,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $206,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $207,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $208,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $211,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $212,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $213,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $214,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $216,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-04 Price Changed $217,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $218,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $221,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $222,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $223,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-09 Price Changed $224,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-13 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-18 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-19 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-07 Price Changed $238,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-03 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-06 Price Changed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-11 Price Changed $249,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-29 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-19 Price Changed $251,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $256,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-08 Price Changed $257,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-30 Price Changed $258,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-23 Price Changed $263,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-10 Price Changed $264,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-15 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $707 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.