6850 Downing Rd Spc 31 · Medford, OR 97502

$28,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Land public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1980 $37/sqft · 22% below area Est $37k · 22% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity to own your home in the ''ALL-AGE'' Park located at Table Rock Mobile Estates. (Land not included) This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and 770 sq. ft. of living space. Centrally located on a nice corner lot with room for a garden area. The laminate flooring in home is less than 4 years old with the bathroom flooring being newly installed and the fully equipped bathroom features a tub/shower combo. Open living concept featuring vaulted ceiling with the kitchen open to the spacious living area. The home has good bones, but could use some TLC. Newly installed vinyl skirting around the home with some newly installed window awnings. The ramp out the back door into the covered carport is newly built and the driveway offers room to park two vehicles. A great covered front porch to enjoy the cool Spring evenings with the lot featuring a sturdy shed for storing all your outdoor lawn equipment and storage items. NO SIGN on home. Get your Buyer's in today.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Newer kitchen sink
• Open living concept

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWLY INSTALLED BATHROOM FLOOR
• TUB SHOWER COMBO
• OPEN LIVING CONCEPT
• NEWER KITCHEN SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 51.5% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $197 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $855 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,790 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 161.48%
• DSCR: 8.19
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,567
• List price: $28,500
• Delta: -22.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.26×
• Total profit: $65,945
• Equity at exit: $4,249

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.38×
• Total profit: $154,636
• Equity at exit: $2,464

Cash invested: $7,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$149
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $241/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $230

Max offer price $28,500

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,125
• Closing costs: $855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $28,500 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $28,500 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $28,500 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $28,500 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,500 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $28,500 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $28,500 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $28,500 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,500 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $28,500 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $28,500 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,500 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,500 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,500 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $28,500 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $28,500 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity to own your home in the ''ALL-AGE'' Park located at Table Rock Mobile Estates. (Land not included) This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and 770 sq. ft. of living space. Centrally located on a nice corner lot with room for a garden area. The laminate flooring in home is less than 4 years old with the bathroom flooring being newly installed and the fully equipped bathroom features a tub/shower combo. Open living concept featuring vaulted ceiling with the kitchen open to the spacious living area. The home has good bones, but could use some TLC. Newly installed vinyl skirting around the home with some newly installed window awnings. The ramp out the back door into the covered carport is newly built and the driveway offers room to park two vehicles. A great covered front porch to enjoy the cool Spring evenings with the lot featuring a sturdy shed for storing all your outdoor lawn equipment and storage items. NO SIGN on home. Get your Buyer's in today.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $30,000 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity to own your home in the ''ALL-AGE'' Park located at Table Rock Mobile Estates. (Land not included) This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and 770 sq. ft. of living space. Centrally located on a nice corner lot with room for a garden area. The laminate flooring in home is less than 4 years old with the bathroom flooring being newly installed and the fully equipped bathroom features a tub/shower combo. Open living concept featuring vaulted ceiling with the kitchen open to the spacious living area. The home has good bones, but could use some TLC. Newly installed vinyl skirting around the home with some newly installed window awnings. The ramp out the back door into the covered carport is newly built and the driveway offers room to park two vehicles. A great covered front porch to enjoy the cool Spring evenings with the lot featuring a sturdy shed for storing all your outdoor lawn equipment and storage items. NO SIGN on home. Get your Buyer's in today.

18. 2026-03-21
    listed $35,000 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity to own your home in the ''ALL-AGE'' Park located at Table Rock Mobile Estates. (Land not included) This charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and 770 sq. ft. of living space. Centrally located on a nice corner lot with room for a garden area. The laminate flooring in home is less than 4 years old with the bathroom flooring being newly installed and the fully equipped bathroom features a tub/shower combo. Open living concept featuring vaulted ceiling with the kitchen open to the spacious living area. The home has good bones, but could use some TLC. Newly installed vinyl skirting around the home with some newly installed window awnings. The ramp out the back door into the covered carport is newly built and the driveway offers room to park two vehicles. A great covered front porch to enjoy the cool Spring evenings with the lot featuring a sturdy shed for storing all your outdoor lawn equipment and storage items. NO SIGN on home. Get your Buyer's in today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $241 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $276 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: +$35/yr (+$3/mo · 14.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,596
• − Property taxes: −$241
• − Insurance: −$142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$829
• Taxable income: $13,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,170
• After-tax cash flow: $9,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $28,500 MLSCO
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $30,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-21 Listed $35,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $241 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.