1002 Dodge St · Stephenville, TX 76401

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1945 7,492 sqft lot $136/sqft · 9% below area Est $154k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located near Tarleton State University, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers strong potential for rental or value-add opportunity. Built in 1945, the property includes approximately 1,030 square feet of living space on a 7,492 square foot lot. The home features a functional layout, covered carport, and is situated in an established area with convenient access to shopping, dining, and campus amenities. Ideal for investors seeking a property with upside potential in a high-demand rental market. Property will be sold as is.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Functional layout
• 7,492 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEAR TARLETON STATE UNIVERSITY
• STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RENTAL
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COVERED CARPORT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in Stephenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in TX, #3,840 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment D-.
• Stephenville ISD (town): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #191 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,767
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -8.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 East Rd	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,091 (+6%)	21mo	$219,000	$201	61
310 E Clifton St	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-3%)	6mo	$249,000	$249	60
1000 E Pearl St	0.06mi	2/1.0	898 (-13%)	18mo	$150,000	$167	57
609 E Clifton St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,022 (-1%)	14mo	$179,000	$175	53
658 E Long	0.37mi	2/1.0	892 (-13%)	20mo	$175,000	$196	40
945 S Jackson St	0.71mi	2/1.0	884 (-14%)	24mo	$189,500	$214	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-14,982
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,710
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76401

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,200

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 E Lingleville Rd Stephenville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	776	$1,378	$1.77	43d	1	0.96mi
1391 N Race Unit C Stephenville, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	43d	1	1.16mi
1026 W Tarleton St Apt 102 Stephenville, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	1.24mi
731 W Walnut St Stephenville, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,100	$1.33	43d	1	1.25mi
791 N Clinton St Stephenville, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,800	$1.55	43d	1	1.27mi
504 S 1st Ave Unit 1 Stephenville, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	1.41mi
290 S McIlhaney St Unit 1102 Stephenville, TX	3.0	3.0	1223	$775	$0.63	43d	1	1.41mi
561 S Second Ave Stephenville, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$750	$0.50	43d	1	1.46mi
1713 Bingham St Stephenville, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$1,750	$1.44	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $145,000 Active 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Located near Tarleton State University, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers strong potential for rental or value-add opportunity. Built in 1945, the property includes approximately 1,030 square feet of living space on a 7,492 square foot lot. The home features a functional layout, covered carport, and is situated in an established area with convenient access to shopping, dining, and campus amenities. Ideal for investors seeking a property with upside potential in a high-demand rental market. Property will be sold as is.

17. 2025-07-02
    listed $180,000 Active
18. 2025-03-01
    historical
19. 2024-09-23
    price $180,000
20. 2024-08-13
    price $182,500
21. 2024-05-28
    listed $190,000 Active
22. 2023-06-08
    soldstatus
23. 2019-07-02
    historical
24. 2019-06-03
    status Active
25. 2019-05-20
    historical Active Option Contract
26. 2019-05-16
    status Active
27. 2019-05-10
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2019-04-24
    listed $99,500 Active
29. 2019-04-05
    historical Active Option Contract
30. 2019-04-05
    historical
31. 2019-03-13
    status Active
32. 2019-03-09
    historical Active Option Contract
33. 2019-03-04
    listed $99,500 Active
34. 2018-06-03
    historical
35. 2018-04-02
    listed $54,900 Active
36. 2018-04-01
    historical
37. 2018-02-20
    price $59,900
38. 2017-12-08
    listed $69,900 Active
39. 2017-11-30
    historical
40. 2017-10-02
    price $69,900
41. 2017-05-31
    listed $74,900 Active
42. 2014-02-11
    historical
43. 2013-01-08
    listed $45,000
44. 2012-12-31
    historical
45. 2012-04-02
    listed $50,000
46. 2008-09-29
    soldstatus
47. 2008-09-19
    historical
48. 2008-08-29
    listed $29,900
49. 2008-02-29
    soldstatus
50. 2006-05-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$696/yr (+$58/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$20
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephenville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841520
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,565
• Composite: 42.23/100
• National rank: #3283
• State rank: #191 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stephenville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #3840

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stephenville, TX
• County: Erath County · 31,375 people
• City population: 31,375
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,375
• Household income: $61,210
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1758.0

Population outlook (Erath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,437 people
• By 2030: 55,510 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 66,379 · +31.6%
• By 2050: 77,981 · +54.6%
• By 2075: 109,727 · +117.6%
• By 2100: 132,574 · +162.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.7% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+63.9 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+67.1 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.71%
• Current HPI: 234.4986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+238.0% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $182,500 NTREIS
• 2024-05-28 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-06-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-05-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-05-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-05-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-04-24 Listed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2019-04-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-04-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-03-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2019-03-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-03-04 Listed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2018-06-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-04-02 Listed $54,900 NTREIS
• 2018-04-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-02-20 Price Changed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2017-12-08 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2017-11-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-10-02 Price Changed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2017-05-31 Listed $74,900 NTREIS
• 2014-02-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-01-08 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2012-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-04-02 Listed $50,000 NTREIS
• 2008-09-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-09-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-08-29 Listed $29,900 NTREIS
• 2008-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-03-29 Listed $42,900 NTREIS
• 1989-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,866 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.