814 Nantucket Ct · Bon Air, VA 23236

$249,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 1,960 sqft lot Est $244k · at est. $165/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1,372-square-foot townhome in Richmond’s Sturbridge Village offers three bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, balancing modern updates with comfortable living spaces. The home was built in 1973 and features a functional two-story layout perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Key Features * Inviting Living Area: The spacious living room serves as a central hub, featuring a classic brick chimney fireplace that adds warmth and character to the space. * Functional Layout: An open floor plan on the main level seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, while a dedicated first-floor laundry room provides daily convenience. * Private Primary Suite: The upper level includes a generous p

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Patio for grilling
• Fenced-in backyard

Tags

• BRICK CHIMNEY FIREPLACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• PATIO FOR GRILLING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $165 monthly fee; HOA covers association management, grounds and structure maintenance, and road maintenance; Community landscaping and common grounds/areas

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Two-story attached property; Resale condition; Wood siding with frame and drywall construction; Composition shingle roof
• Construction: Built (actual year recorded); Frame construction with wood siding; Drywall interior; Composition shingle roof; Masonry fireplace
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Storage shed; Back yard fencing; Dead-end street lot feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooking (range/oven/stove); Disposal; Refrigerator; Oven; Stove
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedrooms included within room count)
• Flooring: Laminate; Partially carpeted; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Second-floor full bath with tub
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining area; High-speed internet available; Primary bedroom with private bath; Wired for data; Walk-in closet(s); Masonry fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-596/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Bon Air — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#103 in VA, #3,251 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crestwood Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 580 students, 81% FRL); Robious Middle (math 73% / reading 73%, grade A, #58 of 342 statewide, top 17%, 1,129 students, 26% FRL); James River High (math 56% / reading 86%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $250k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,375 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,216
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10403 Hyannis Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,260 (-8%)	10mo	$235,000	$187	75
713 Sturgis Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+3%)	15mo	$250,450	$178	73
10308 Kingstree Ct	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-7%)	20mo	$226,000	$177	68
813 Nantucket Ct	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+5%)	22mo	$250,950	$174	68
1716 Early Settlers Rd	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+2%)	12mo	$287,500	$205	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-41,852
• Equity at exit: $37,201

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,267
• Equity at exit: $21,572

Cash invested: $69,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23236

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,990/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,207

Max offer price $240,731

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $21	+0% $-50	+5% $-120	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-134	+0% $-50	+5% $35	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $14	base $-50	+0.5pp $-114	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,375
• Closing costs: $7,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 Pool Rd North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	945	$1,890	$2.00	0d	9	0.19mi
610 Lemoine Ln North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,550	$1.42	46d	1	0.28mi
10101 Bayham Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	0d	1	0.73mi
2222 Early Settlers Rd North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.5	1776	$2,850	$1.60	26d	1	0.92mi
1917 Millsap Ln North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,300	$1.71	0d	1	1.06mi
2000 Breezy Point Cir North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,150	$2.10	0d	33	1.14mi
9111 N Arch Village Ct North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.5	936	$1,500	$1.60	0d	4	1.31mi
9111 N Arch Village Ct North Chesterfield, VA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1041	$1,700	$1.63	24d	1	1.31mi
10146 Iron Mill Rd North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.0	971	$1,500	$1.54	13d	1	1.34mi
10146 Iron Mill Rd North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.0	971	$1,500	$1.54	0d	1	1.34mi
10280 Iron Mill Rd North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.5	962	$1,750	$1.82	13d	1	1.36mi
10200 Stroud Ln North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,550	$1.51	6d	1	1.41mi
10200 Stroud Ln North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,550	$1.51	46d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $165 · $1,980/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $249,500 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,500 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,500 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,500 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,500 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    listed $249,500 Active
11. 2013-03-01
    soldstatus $88,673
12. 1996-11-27
    soldstatus $61,950
13. 1991-06-03
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,046 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,976
• − Property taxes: −$1,990
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − HOA: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$7,258
• Taxable loss: −$4,843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bon Air

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #3251

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 33,207
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,903
• Household income: $110,499
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 419.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.45%
• Current HPI: 284.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+353.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $249,500 CVRMLS
• 2013-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,673 Public Records
• 1996-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $61,950 Public Records
• 1991-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,990 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.