205 W Bell Rd #225 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$18,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 120 Days on market

Built 1974 ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ON LEASED LAND: Dont miss out on this 2 bedroom 1 bath spacious home in Central Park MHP. Large kitchen with plenty of storage, pantry, all appliances convey. Front room is open and inviting. Both bedrooms are good size. Enjoy outside on your covered patio, with enough room to put up a fence. Storage unit conveys. Community is a 55 plus age restricted community. Enjoy the pool, spa and more.

Key facts

• Spa
• Large kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE UNIT
• POOL
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: gravel/stone front and back; Lot size not available
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease $1,076 per month; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community pool; Golf; Heated community spa; Community media room; Biking/walking paths; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Reflective coating roof; Other roof type
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Non-laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Accessible approach with ramp; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 75.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,380 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 75.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 246.05%
• DSCR: 11.95
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,408
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 W Bell Rd #225	0.00mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	0mo	$10,000	$11	100
16622 N 1st Ave #88	0.12mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	0mo	$18,500	$21	90
16622 N 2nd Dr #182	0.11mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	7mo	$70,000	$73	73
17833 N 1st Pl	0.67mi	2/2.0	992 (+11%)	3mo	$280,000	$282	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.63×
• Total profit: $58,629
• Equity at exit: $2,684

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.67×
• Total profit: $119,297
• Equity at exit: $1,556

Cash invested: $5,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$22 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $1,033

Break-even live

Break-even rent $157

Max offer price $18,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,046	-5% $1,040	+0% $1,033	+5% $1,027	+10% $1,021
Rent	-10% $918	-5% $976	+0% $1,033	+5% $1,091	+10% $1,149
Rate	-1.0pp $1,042	-0.5pp $1,038	base $1,033	+0.5pp $1,029	+1.0pp $1,024

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,500
• Closing costs: $540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 W Bell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	739	$1,299	$1.76	25d	1	0.15mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 12 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	856	$1,399	$1.63	25d	1	0.15mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,649	$1.68	25d	1	0.15mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	2d	11	0.15mi
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	2d	1	0.15mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	845	$1,499	$1.77	9d	1	0.17mi
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,564	$1.45	3d	32	0.18mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,427	$2.17	0d	35	0.24mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,455	$1.68	0d	7	0.26mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,708	$1.93	0d	31	0.52mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,437	$1.86	0d	23	0.60mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,538	$1.42	0d	49	0.78mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	45d	1	0.82mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	0d	6	0.87mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	18d	1	0.91mi
719 E Lola Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$2,900	$4.22	9d	1	0.99mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	12d	1	1.07mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	19d	1	1.07mi
17241 N 16th Dr #1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	672	$1,450	$2.16	45d	1	1.07mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,824	$1.85	0d	23	1.07mi
17228 N 16th Dr #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	21d	1	1.09mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	0d	39	1.11mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,547	$1.45	0d	9	1.13mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	0d	20	1.23mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	3d	12	1.25mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,371	$1.71	0d	34	1.26mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	0d	40	1.30mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	9d	1	1.34mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	21d	1	1.34mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	25d	1	1.41mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	4d	1	1.42mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	45d	1	1.43mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,558	$1.63	0d	93	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $18,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $18,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $18,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $18,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $18,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $18,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $18,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $18,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $18,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-05-19
    price $18,000
12. 2026-03-23
    price $25,000
13. 2026-03-05
    price $30,000
14. 2026-02-15
    listed $32,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,008
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$90
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$524
• Taxable income: $12,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,091
• After-tax cash flow: $9,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-43.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $18,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $25,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $30,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $32,000 ARMLS