29 Lake Vista Trail Trl #205 · River Park, FL 34952

$109,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 800 sqft · Condo public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1985 $481/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BUYER FINANCING FELL THROUGH!!! Quaint and peaceful 1 bedroom 1.5 bath condo. Indulge in ideal adult community living, in a desirable area. Minutes away from shopping, restaurants and South Hutchinson island beaches. Enjoy a relaxing day by the pool, test your endurance by playing a few rounds of tennis , reach your fitness goals in the fitness area or join in the community events to meet new friends. This community driven property is perfect for a low maintenance life style. Some pictures have been virtually staged

Key facts

• $481 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community has an association; Monthly HOA fee (paid monthly); HOA includes cable TV, insurance, grounds maintenance, sewer, trash, water, and common real estate tax; Community amenities: fitness center, pool, shuffleboard, tennis courts, pickleball courts, baseball/softball field, sidewalks, street lights, manager on site; Pets allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; Resale condition; Entry-level living area; Faces east
• Construction: Block/Concrete/CBS construction; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch (glass-enclosed)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Trash compactor
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Attic fan; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-571/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (7.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 645 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 7227% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $110k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,497 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-22,156
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-28,469
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 645
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,854/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$481
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,592

Max offer price $101,497

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-16	+0% $-48	+5% $-79	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-108	+0% $-48	+5% $13	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-20	base $-48	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	25d	1	0.00mi
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	25d	1	0.04mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	25d	1	0.10mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	25d	1	0.10mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	23d	1	0.16mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	25d	1	0.17mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,543	$1.51	16d	16	0.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $481 · $5,772/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $109,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 524-char remark
5. 2026-04-15
   listed $1,500
6. 2026-03-04
   listed $109,900 Active
7. 2025-07-01
   historical $1,400
8. 2025-07-01
   historical
9. 2025-06-24
   price $115,000
10. 2025-06-24
    price $119,000
11. 2025-06-24
    price $110,000
12. 2025-05-09
    listed $1,400
13. 2025-04-17
    price $119,000
14. 2025-01-21
    listed $129,900 Active
15. 2025-01-15
    historical
16. 2023-07-12
    historical
17. 2023-04-05
    price $164,900
18. 2023-02-28
    price $169,900
19. 2023-01-11
    listed $179,900 Active
20. 2016-06-26
    historical
21. 2014-10-08
    historical
22. 2008-12-22
    soldstatus $50,000
23. 2008-01-25
    listed $59,500
24. 2007-03-30
    listed $97,500
25. 2000-04-18
    soldstatus $29,900
26. 2000-04-10
    soldstatus $29,900
27. 2000-01-31
    historical
28. 1999-10-13
    listed $29,900
29. 1984-04-01
    soldstatus $40,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,854 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,854 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,854
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − HOA: −$5,772
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable loss: −$2,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$501
• After-tax cash flow: $-69/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-96.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed for Rent $1,500 GFLMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $109,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-01 Rental Removed $1,400 RMLSFL
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $115,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $119,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $110,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,400 RMLSFL
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $119,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-01-21 Listed $129,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-01-15 Coming Soon — Beaches MLS
• 2023-07-12 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2023-04-05 Price Changed $164,900 Beaches MLS
• 2023-02-28 Price Changed $169,900 Beaches MLS
• 2023-01-11 Listed $179,900 Beaches MLS
• 2016-06-26 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2014-10-08 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2008-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-25 Listed $59,500 Beaches MLS
• 2007-03-30 Listed $97,500 MCRTC
• 2000-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records
• 2000-04-10 Sold (MLS) $29,900 Beaches MLS
• 2000-01-31 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 1999-10-13 Listed $29,900 Beaches MLS
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+112.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,854 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.