1389 Redhead Rd · New Home, TX 79381

$310,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2022 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Experience the best of country living in this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home built in late 2022 and situated on just over one acre in the highly sought-after New Home Independent School District. With modern construction and room to grow, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and wide-open space. Inside, you'll find a well designed floor plan with spacious living areas and all the benefits of newer construction and 4 true bedrooms! Open concept living space offers sightlines from front to back. The kitchen offers granite counters, A LOT of counter space & Storage PLUS a Texas sized Pantry. Outside, the possibilities are endless. Create your dream shop, add

Key facts

• Modern construction
• Texas sized pantry
• Over an acre of land

Tags

• MODERN CONSTRUCTION
• WELL DESIGNED FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• TEXAS SIZED PANTRY
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.04-acre lot; Road frontage is unimproved with dirt and gravel road surface

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built as 1,728 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Outside storage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $297,070 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.67%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $57,004
• Equity at exit: $142,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $175,914
• Equity at exit: $221,657

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79381

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,922/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,635

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 695-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $310,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,922 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,673 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,751/yr (+$146/mo · 44.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$3,922
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,852
• − Management: −$2,852
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$1,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $3,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Home ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832490
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,372
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #845
• State rank: #16 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Home

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #7488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47
• Population (ZIP): 1,457

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 125.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $310,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+422.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,922 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.