3830 Katelyns Ln · Gatlinburg, TN 37876

$449,950

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2001 1.19 ac lot $666/sqft · 76% above area Est $511k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3830 Katelyns Lane, a charming mountain retreat offering comfort, convenience, and outstanding investment potential in the heart of Sevierville. With 1 bedroom, 1.5 bathrooms, and 1,352 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for a short-term rental, weekend getaway, or private Smoky Mountain escape. Perfectly positioned near Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, this home provides quick access to the area's most popular attractions, dining, and entertainment while still offering a peaceful setting to relax and recharge. Step inside to a well-maintained interior that blends warmth and functionality, creating an inviting atmosphere for both owners and guests. The spacious layout offers comfortable living areas designed for gathering and unwinding, while the inclusion of a washer and dryer adds everyday convenience. A durable metal roof enhances both longevity and low-maintenance appeal, providing peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're seeking a turn-key investment property in a high-demand rental market or a cozy personal retreat close to all the action, 3830 Katelyns Lane delivers location, charm, and income-producing potential in one attractive package. Schedule your private showing today and explore the possibilities this Sevierville property has to offer. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Short term rental
• 1.19 acre lot

Tags

• SHORT TERM RENTAL
• PRIVATE SMOKY MOUNTAIN ESCAPE
• QUICK ACCESS TO ATTRACTIONS
• WELL MAINTAINED INTERIOR
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• INCOME PRODUCING POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (64.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (71.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (71.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 1.3% in Gatlinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#27 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment D-.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1142 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $450k implies a 481% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,153 (71.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 71% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.29% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.59%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 29.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $510,777
• List price: $449,950
• Delta: -11.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $136,765
• Equity at exit: $405,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $477,438
• Equity at exit: $874,154

Cash invested: $125,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1142
• Price-to-rent: 29.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-1,637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,363

Max offer price $160,810

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,382	-5% $-1,509	+0% $-1,637	+5% $-1,764	+10% $-1,891
Rent	-10% $-1,739	-5% $-1,688	+0% $-1,637	+5% $-1,586	+10% $-1,535
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,410	-0.5pp $-1,522	base $-1,637	+0.5pp $-1,753	+1.0pp $-1,872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,488
• Closing costs: $13,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $449,950 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,950 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,950 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,950 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,950 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,950 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,950 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,950 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,950 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $449,950 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,950 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,950 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,950 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,950 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,950 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,950 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-02-23
    listed $449,950 Active 1383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1383 chars)

    Welcome to 3830 Katelyns Lane, a charming mountain retreat offering comfort, convenience, and outstanding investment potential in the heart of Sevierville. With 1 bedroom, 1.5 bathrooms, and 1,352 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for a short-term rental, weekend getaway, or private Smoky Mountain escape. Perfectly positioned near Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, this home provides quick access to the area's most popular attractions, dining, and entertainment while still offering a peaceful setting to relax and recharge. Step inside to a well-maintained interior that blends warmth and functionality, creating an inviting atmosphere for both owners and guests. The spacious layout offers comfortable living areas designed for gathering and unwinding, while the inclusion of a washer and dryer adds everyday convenience. A durable metal roof enhances both longevity and low-maintenance appeal, providing peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're seeking a turn-key investment property in a high-demand rental market or a cozy personal retreat close to all the action, 3830 Katelyns Lane delivers location, charm, and income-producing potential in one attractive package. Schedule your private showing today and explore the possibilities this Sevierville property has to offer. Buyer to verify all information.

18. 2026-02-20
    listed $449,950 Active 1383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1383 chars)

    Welcome to 3830 Katelyns Lane, a charming mountain retreat offering comfort, convenience, and outstanding investment potential in the heart of Sevierville. With 1 bedroom, 1.5 bathrooms, and 1,352 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for a short-term rental, weekend getaway, or private Smoky Mountain escape. Perfectly positioned near Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, this home provides quick access to the area's most popular attractions, dining, and entertainment while still offering a peaceful setting to relax and recharge. Step inside to a well-maintained interior that blends warmth and functionality, creating an inviting atmosphere for both owners and guests. The spacious layout offers comfortable living areas designed for gathering and unwinding, while the inclusion of a washer and dryer adds everyday convenience. A durable metal roof enhances both longevity and low-maintenance appeal, providing peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're seeking a turn-key investment property in a high-demand rental market or a cozy personal retreat close to all the action, 3830 Katelyns Lane delivers location, charm, and income-producing potential in one attractive package. Schedule your private showing today and explore the possibilities this Sevierville property has to offer. Buyer to verify all information.

19. 2024-08-29
    historical
20. 2024-03-08
    listed $535,000 Active
21. 2024-03-05
    listed $535,000 Active
22. 2024-03-01
    historical
23. 2023-10-02
    historical
24. 2023-05-04
    price $560,000
25. 2023-04-12
    listed $565,000 Active
26. 2023-03-09
    historical
27. 2023-03-09
    historical
28. 2022-10-27
    listed $575,000 Active
29. 2022-09-08
    listed $575,000 Active
30. 2022-09-08
    listed $575,000 Active
31. 2010-11-03
    soldstatus $77,500
32. 2010-08-11
    listed $89,900
33. 2001-01-11
    soldstatus $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,195 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,875/yr (+$156/mo · 142.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,204
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,240
• − Management: −$1,240
• − Depreciation: −$13,089
• Taxable loss: −$28,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,923
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Gatlinburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #5524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+593.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $449,950 GSMAR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $449,950 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-08-29 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-08 Listed $535,000 GSMAR
• 2024-03-05 Listed $535,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-01 Coming Soon — Knoxville MLS
• 2023-10-02 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2023-05-04 Price Changed $560,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2023-04-12 Listed $565,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2023-03-09 Delisted — GSMAR
• 2023-03-09 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2022-10-27 Listed $575,000 GSMAR
• 2022-09-08 Listed $575,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-09-08 Listed $575,000 LAAR
• 2010-11-03 Sold (MLS) $77,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2010-08-11 Listed $89,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2001-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,320 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.