448 Mechem dr Dr #5 · Ruidoso, NM 88345

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 881 sqft · Condo · 9 Days on market

Built 1974 Poor condition $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Location within walking distance to restaurants and grocery stores. This two bedroom one bath condo with wood burning fireplace. Low HOA fee covers water, trash, and exterior insurance.

Key facts

• Walking distance
• Low hoa fee
• $100 HOA

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LOW HOA FEE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: C2
• HOA & community: Association fee $100 monthly; Association covers insurance, grounds maintenance, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking (gravel parking lot)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium (residential); One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/deck/front porch; Deck; Front porch; Porch; Level lot; Gravel and paved road access; City street frontage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Fireplace heating; Wood heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-67/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 593 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,411 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-29,437
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-25,738
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88345

• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $179,191

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Apache Hills Dr Unit A Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	44d	1	0.60mi
108 Apache Hills Dr Unit A heuristic Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	25d	1	0.61mi
402 4th St Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,200	$2.04	44d	1	0.75mi
110 Hart Ave Ruidoso, NM	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	44d	1	1.04mi
128 Taos Trl Ruidoso, NM	3.0	1.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	44d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 191-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $180,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$730
• After-tax cash flow: $663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, bathrooms, kitchen, systems, and landscaping. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen in the satellite image.
• Major systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both exterior painting/staining — A fresh coat of paint/staining would enhance curb appeal and value.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's aesthetic and functionality.
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizing bathrooms would improve functionality and value.
• Both kitchen updates — Upgrading the kitchen would improve functionality and value.
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading systems would improve functionality and value.
• Both landscaping — Landscaping would improve curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior painting/staining — A fresh coat of paint/staining would enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's aesthetic and functionality. ↑
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizing bathrooms would improve functionality and value. ↑
• Both kitchen updates — Upgrading the kitchen would improve functionality and value. ↑
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading systems would improve functionality and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping would improve curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ruidoso Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502310
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $44,094
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5925
• State rank: #14 of 29 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruidoso, NM
• County: Lincoln County · 7,835 people
• City population: 7,835
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• Population (ZIP): 7,835
• Household income: $53,971
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.17%
• Current HPI: 141.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $180,000 RLCAR