1451 Deep River Rd · Sanford, NC 27330

$170,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1979 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss this incredible opportunity. This 3BR/2BA home sits on 1.04 acres and delivers 1,140 sq. ft. of smart, efficient living space. The property offers room to spread out, create, and enjoy the outdoors—all in a prime location that keeps you close to shopping, schools, and major routes. A great find for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Home has a transferable A/c warranty. Wired Workshop for hobbies

Key facts

• Wired workshop
• Prime location
• 1.04 acre lot

Tags

• WIRED WORKSHOP
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; No sewer (sewer not available)
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Single-story (one level)
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Front, rear and covered porches with a deck; Fire pit; Storage; Workshop (other structure); Cleared, level yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Window coverings and blinds; Storm windows; Fireplace in den (wood burning)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Tankless gas water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.6% in Sanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, commute F.
• Lee County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #131 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tramway Elementary (math 45% / reading 47%, grade D-, #551 of 1,410 statewide, top 40%, 545 students, 47% FRL); East Lee Middle (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #350 of 475 statewide, top 74%, 531 students, 71% FRL); Lee County High (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #381 of 535 statewide, top 72%, 1,508 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 602 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $170k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,250
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $49,379
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27330

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $468	+0% $420	+5% $372	+10% $324
Rent	-10% $275	-5% $347	+0% $420	+5% $492	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $463	base $420	+0.5pp $376	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Starlight St Buffalo Lake, NC	3.0	2.5	1429	$1,790	$1.25	25d	1	0.88mi
112 Starlight St Unit 1 Sanford, NC	3.0	2.5	1482	$1,695	$1.14	9d	1	0.88mi
111 Starlight St Sanford, NC	3.0	2.5	1416	$1,695	$1.20	19d	1	0.90mi
455 David Hill Dr Unit 1 Buffalo Lake, NC	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,795	$1.24	18d	1	0.98mi
455 David Hill Dr Sanford, NC	3.0	3.0	1450	$1,795	$1.24	14d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $170,000 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $170,000
17. 2026-05-05
    status Active
18. 2026-04-21
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-14
    listed $180,000 Active
20. 2019-05-10
    soldstatus $50,000
21. 1995-12-18
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $2,370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$569
• After-tax cash flow: $4,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702560
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,300
• Composite: 29.87/100
• National rank: #6403
• State rank: #131 of 178 in NC

Livability — Sanford

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6134

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 76,725 people
• City population: 76,725
• Metro: Sanford, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,778
• Household income: $61,300
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 928.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,008 people
• By 2030: 64,443 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 66,898 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 68,310 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 70,920 · +12.6%
• By 2100: 70,402 · +11.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: R (+17.5) · D 40.8% · R 58.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.4pp · 2024: -17.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.5 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+13.2 2012: R+10.2 2008: R+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.62%
• Current HPI: 302.3589
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.66%
• Metro: Sanford, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1378.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $170,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $180,000 LPRMLS
• 2019-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.