Oxford Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 442 days

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,766.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-891/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $230k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,766
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -15.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27126 Peaceful Cove Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (+5%)	4mo	$299,000	$160	78
4959 Shimmer Side Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,948 (+10%)	0mo	$305,000	$157	75
4953 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,831 (+3%)	1mo	$265,000	$145	74
2221 Sonder Shore Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (+2%)	0mo	$327,990	$182	69
5210 Biscay Cove Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-9%)	0mo	$249,999	$155	65
5607 Teal Marlene Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-3%)	0mo	$363,815	$212	62
4637 Peony Green Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-5%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	56
4709 Bakers Landing Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,865 (+5%)	1mo	$349,407	$187	53
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+5%)	2mo	$299,990	$161	52
5028 Marcasca Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+3%)	3mo	$301,990	$165	52
5017 Marcasca Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-5%)	3mo	$269,990	$160	50
4736 Peony Green Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (+5%)	4mo	$299,990	$161	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-66,674
• Equity at exit: $49,467

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-95,778
• Equity at exit: $28,685

Cash invested: $92,894 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 206 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $326,995 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,740
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,976/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,902

Max offer price $321,028

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $40	+0% $-74	+5% $-189	+10% $-303
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-185	+0% $-74	+5% $37	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $10	base $-74	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,941
• Closing costs: $9,953
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	28d	1	0.22mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.32mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	13d	24	0.51mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Unit 315 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,418	$1.62	0d	1	0.51mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	2d	1	0.51mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	93d	1	0.54mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	28d	1	0.56mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	4d	1	0.63mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.63mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	39d	1	0.63mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	70d	1	0.63mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,595	$1.20	19d	1	0.67mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	0d	1	0.75mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	93d	1	0.81mi
26123 Venus Trap Trl Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	8d	1	0.95mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	66d	1	1.06mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	0d	1	1.06mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	21d	1	1.07mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	93d	1	1.17mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,035	$1.32	21d	1	1.22mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	62d	1	1.24mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	62d	1	1.24mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	47d	1	1.24mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,020	$1.31	21d	1	1.24mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	73d	1	1.24mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,499	$1.16	41d	1	1.24mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	93d	1	1.24mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.25mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.27mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	93d	1	1.28mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,195	$1.24	21d	1	1.32mi
6303 Golden Seaton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1908	$2,350	$1.23	11d	1	1.32mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	73d	1	1.33mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	0d	1	1.34mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	62d	1	1.34mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	39d	1	1.34mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,120	$1.27	21d	1	1.35mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	21d	1	1.36mi
3083 Sunset Glory Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,300	$1.01	42d	1	1.41mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	13d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,990 Active 441 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $279,990 Active 440 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $279,990 Active 439 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $278,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $278,990 Active 435 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $278,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $278,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $278,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 424 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 422 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 421 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $277,990 Active 420 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 419 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $277,990 Active 418 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 417 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 416 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 415 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $277,990 Active 414 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    price $277,990 Active 413 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 413 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    price $282,990 Active 411 DOM
28. 2026-07-07
    days on market $292,990 Active 411 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $292,990 Active 410 DOM
30. 2026-07-06
    days on market $292,990 Active 409 DOM
31. 2026-07-05
    days on market $292,990 Active 408 DOM
32. 2026-07-03
    days on market $292,990 Active 407 DOM
33. 2026-07-02
    days on market $292,990 Active 406 DOM
34. 2026-07-01
    days on market $292,990 Active 405 DOM
35. 2026-06-30
    days on market $292,990 Active 404 DOM
36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $292,990 Active 403 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $292,990 Active 402 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $292,990 Active 401 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $292,990 Active 400 DOM
40. 2026-06-24
    days on market $292,990 Active 398 DOM
41. 2026-06-22
    days on market $292,990 Active 396 DOM
42. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $292,990 Active 395 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $321,990 Active 392 DOM
44. 2026-06-17
    days on market $321,990 Active 391 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $321,990 Active 390 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $321,990 Active 389 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $321,990 Active 383 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $321,990 Active 382 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $321,990 Active 381 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 378 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,584
• − Property taxes: −$4,976
• − Insurance: −$1,659
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − Depreciation: −$9,651
• Taxable loss: −$6,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a spacious floor plan and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $321,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-21 Listed $510,000 Zillow