1401 9th St #80 · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained and recently updated home ideally located in Fort Lupton, offering convenient access to nearby parks, major highways, and local shopping centers. This property features fresh interior and exterior paint along with new flooring throughout, creating a clean and modern feel. Situated in a highly desirable community, it also benefits from a low lot rent, providing excellent affordability without compromising location or lifestyle. A great opportunity to enjoy comfortable, move-in ready living in a well-connected area.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Nearby parks
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• NEARBY PARKS
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• LOCAL SHOPPING CENTERS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: No association fees; No association transfer fee; No association reserves

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking
• Utilities: Water meter installed; No water rights
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Fire alarm; Gas range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fort Lupton High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 91%, 763 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.20%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1110 Stage Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	23mo	$353,500	$340	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $7,919
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $34,742
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $350/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $646

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $365	+0% $341	+5% $317	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $256	-5% $299	+0% $341	+5% $384	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $363	base $341	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Mountview Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0	1.0	791	$941	$1.19	44d	1	0.12mi
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	5d	1	0.87mi
80 S Grand Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0	1.0	765	$1,295	$1.69	44d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $85,000 Active 535-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $350 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $468 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$350
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,035
• − Management: −$1,035
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$685
• After-tax cash flow: $3,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $85,000 IRES

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $350 · +45.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.