4306 122nd Ln NE Unit E · Blaine, MN 55449

$370,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,909 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 1,848 sqft lot $194/sqft · 11% below area Est $405k · 9% under $277/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful Ashton floorplan with an upgraded interior design package! This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Home will complete in the March timeframe. This community will offer close proximity to restaurants, shopping, recreation, and highway access. Pictures are of a model home. Inquire with Sales Consultant for more details.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Breakfast bar
• Two story townhome

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained private road with curbs, paved streets and street lights
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Associa; Monthly association fee; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal; Community features include fire sprinkler system and in-ground sprinkler system

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener; 2-car garage (22 x 18); Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Circuit breaker electrical service (Connexus Energy)
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Slab foundation
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Exterior features: Patio; In-ground sprinkler system; Outdoor area with light tree coverage; No pool; No fencing noted; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Primary bathroom is a 3/4 bath with double sink; One full bathroom on the upper level; Main-level half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace in the living room; Air-to-air exchanger; Exhaust fan; Paneled doors; Tile floors; Breakfast bar; Living/dining room combination; Walk-in closet; 2nd floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Blaine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary (math 48% / reading 52%, grade D+, #417 of 857 statewide, top 49%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Roosevelt Middle (math 46% / reading 61%, grade C+, #51 of 258 statewide, top 20%, 809 students, 30% FRL); Blaine High School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,969 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $299,122 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,457
• List price: $370,000
• Delta: -8.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-74,114
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-69,748
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55449

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,403/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$277
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,361

Max offer price $318,419

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-187	+0% $-292	+5% $-397	+10% $-501
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-410	+0% $-292	+5% $-174	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-198	base $-292	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12283 Ghia Ct NE Unit B Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,940	$1.54	45d	1	0.01mi
13202 Jewell St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.5	2217	$3,204	$1.44	0d	10	1.18mi
12335 Midway Cir NE Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,800	$1.30	4d	1	1.19mi
2445 120th Cir NE Blaine, MN	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1894	$3,314	$1.75	0d	18	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $277 · $3,324/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $370,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $370,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $370,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $370,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $380,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $380,000 Active 617-char remark
18. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus $378,490 Sold 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    The beautiful Ashton floorplan with an upgraded interior design package! This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Home will complete in the March timeframe. This community will offer close proximity to restaurants, shopping, recreation, and highway access. Pictures are of a model home. Inquire with Sales Consultant for more details.

19. 2022-03-11
    status Pending 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    The beautiful Ashton floorplan with an upgraded interior design package! This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Home will complete in the March timeframe. This community will offer close proximity to restaurants, shopping, recreation, and highway access. Pictures are of a model home. Inquire with Sales Consultant for more details.

20. 2022-02-25
    price $383,490 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    The beautiful Ashton floorplan with an upgraded interior design package! This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Home will complete in the March timeframe. This community will offer close proximity to restaurants, shopping, recreation, and highway access. Pictures are of a model home. Inquire with Sales Consultant for more details.

21. 2022-02-18
    price $385,790 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    The beautiful Ashton floorplan with an upgraded interior design package! This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Home will complete in the March timeframe. This community will offer close proximity to restaurants, shopping, recreation, and highway access. Pictures are of a model home. Inquire with Sales Consultant for more details.

22. 2022-01-22
    listed $384,555 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    The beautiful Ashton floorplan with an upgraded interior design package! This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Home will complete in the March timeframe. This community will offer close proximity to restaurants, shopping, recreation, and highway access. Pictures are of a model home. Inquire with Sales Consultant for more details.

23. 2021-12-07
    historical
24. 2021-11-19
    price $384,990
25. 2021-10-25
    listed $382,990 Active
26. 2021-10-24
    historical
27. 2021-10-07
    listed $380,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,773 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: +$371/yr (+$31/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$3,403
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,872
• − Management: −$2,872
• − HOA: −$3,324
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$9,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,380
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained two-story townhome is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. It offers a spacious kitchen, modern bathrooms, and a tidy exterior. Minor touch-ups, such as painting the exterior and cleaning gutters, can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #7073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 67,472
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,443
• Household income: $131,832
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 10% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Arabic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.24%
• Current HPI: 225.2348
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $370,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $380,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $378,490 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Price Changed $383,490 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-18 Price Changed $385,790 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-22 Listed $384,555 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-19 Price Changed $384,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Listed $382,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-07 Listed $380,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+88.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,403 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.