4306 122nd Ln NE Unit E · Blaine, MN 55449

$350,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,909 sqft · Condo public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 2-car garage $183/sqft · 8% below area Est $369k · 5% under $277/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful Ashton floorplan with an upgraded interior design package! This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Home will complete in the March timeframe. This community will offer close proximity to restaurants, shopping, recreation, and highway access. Pictures are of a model home. Inquire with Sales Consultant for more details.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Breakfast bar
• Two story townhome

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Blaine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary (math 48% / reading 52%, grade D+, #417 of 857 statewide, top 49%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Roosevelt Middle (math 46% / reading 61%, grade C+, #51 of 258 statewide, top 20%, 809 students, 30% FRL); Blaine High School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,969 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $294,981 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,968
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -5.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12149 Hupp St NE	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,989 (+4%)	1mo	$379,900	$191	82
12155 Hupp St NE	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,852 (-3%)	35mo	$347,000	$187	60
3292 119th Ave NE	1.37mi	3/3.0	1,805 (-5%)	21mo	$450,000	$249	39
12309 N Lake Blvd	1.13mi	3/3.0	2,296 (+20%)	13mo	$510,000	$222	29
4393 128th Ln NE	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,245 (+18%)	11mo	$515,000	$229	26
4762 132nd Ct NE	1.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,134 (+12%)	19mo	$529,500	$248	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-65,791
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-56,092
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 55449

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,403/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$277
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,218

Max offer price $312,640

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-112	+0% $-211	+5% $-311	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-445	-5% $-328	+0% $-211	+5% $-95	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-122	base $-211	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12283 Ghia Ct NE Unit B Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,940	$1.54	139d	1	0.01mi
13202 Jewell St NE Blaine, MN	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.5	2217	$3,151	$1.42	0d	7	1.18mi
12335 Midway Cir NE Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,800	$1.30	98d	1	1.19mi
7884 Gotland Ln Lino Lakes, MN	4.0	3.0	1940	$2,600	$1.34	5d	1	1.21mi
7884 Gotland Ln Lino Lakes, MN	4.0	3.0	1940	$2,600	$1.34	0d	1	1.21mi
4940 115th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	3.0	2314	$2,650	$1.15	56d	1	1.21mi
4940 115th Ave NE Blaine, MN	3.0	3.0	2314	$2,650	$1.15	27d	1	1.21mi
2445 120th Cir NE Blaine, MN	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1894	$3,410	$1.80	0d	11	1.22mi
4022 112th Cir NE Blaine, MN	3.0	3.0	2605	$3,120	$1.20	0d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained private road with curbs, paved streets and street lights
• HOA & community: HOA managed by AssociaMonthly association feeHOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removalCommunity features include fire sprinkler system and in-ground sprinkler system

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener2-car garage (22 x 18)Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: City water connectedCity sewer connectedNatural gasCircuit breaker electrical service (Connexus Energy)
• Home design: Attached residential propertyTwo levelsSlab foundation
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Exterior features: PatioIn-ground sprinkler systemOutdoor area with light tree coverageNo poolNo fencing notedOther exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center islandRangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Primary bathroom is a 3/4 bath with double sinkOne full bathroom on the upper levelMain-level half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace in the living roomAir-to-air exchangerExhaust fanPaneled doorsTile floorsBreakfast barLiving/dining room combinationWalk-in closet2nd floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookupsWasher and dryer includedGas water heater

HOA detail $277/mo · $3,324/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $350,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $350,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $350,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $350,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $350,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $350,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $350,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $350,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $350,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $350,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $350,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $350,000 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $350,000 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $350,000 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $350,000 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $350,000 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $350,000 Active 104 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $350,000 Active 103 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $350,000 Active 102 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $350,000 Active 101 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $360,000 Active 100 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $360,000 Active 99 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $360,000 Active 98 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $360,000 Active 97 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $360,000 Active 96 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $360,000 Active 95 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $360,000 Active 94 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $360,000 Active 93 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $360,000 Active 92 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $360,000 Active 91 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $360,000 Active 90 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $360,000 Active 89 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $360,000 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $360,000 Active 86 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 85 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 84 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 81 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $360,000 Active 80 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $360,000 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $360,000 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $360,000 Active 76 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $360,000 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $360,000 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,661 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$259/yr (+$22/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,403
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − HOA: −$3,324
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$8,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,545–$28,635 screening

This well-maintained two-story townhome is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. It offers a spacious kitchen, modern bathrooms, and a tidy exterior. Minor touch-ups, such as painting the exterior and cleaning gutters, can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jefferson Elementary D+ MN #417/857 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 Middle Roosevelt Middle C+ MN #51/258 Nat'l #2,785/14,009 High Blaine High School C MN #77/471 Nat'l #4,271/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #7073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, MN
• County: Anoka County · 375,223 people
• City population: 67,472
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,443
• Household income: $131,832
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 10% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Arabic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.24%
• Current HPI: 225.2348
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained private road with curbs, paved streets and street lights
• HOA & community: HOA managed by AssociaMonthly association feeHOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removalCommunity features include fire sprinkler system and in-ground sprinkler system

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener2-car garage (22 x 18)Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: City water connectedCity sewer connectedNatural gasCircuit breaker electrical service (Connexus Energy)
• Home design: Attached residential propertyTwo levelsSlab foundation
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Exterior features: PatioIn-ground sprinkler systemOutdoor area with light tree coverageNo poolNo fencing notedOther exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center islandRangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Primary bathroom is a 3/4 bath with double sinkOne full bathroom on the upper levelMain-level half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace in the living roomAir-to-air exchangerExhaust fanPaneled doorsTile floorsBreakfast barLiving/dining room combinationWalk-in closet2nd floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookupsWasher and dryer includedGas water heater

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $370,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $380,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $378,490 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Price Changed $383,490 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-18 Price Changed $385,790 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-22 Listed $384,555 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-19 Price Changed $384,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Listed $382,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-07 Listed $380,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+88.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,403 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.