4027 Lake Cypress Cir · Houston, TX 77068

$349,991

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2017 6,194 sqft lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $339k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home didn't experience any flooding or leaks during Hurricane Harvey. Fall in love w/ this new KB Home on lake view lot in Cypress Creek Crossing. Create new cuisines in gourmet kitchen w/ built-in appliances, maple cabinetry, & silestone countertops w/ backsplash. Retreat to the master suite w/ double sinks in the vanity & recessed lighting. Relax on your private extended covered patio. Only a short drive to Highway 249 & the Sam Houston Tollway. Sprinkler system included. Call today!

Key facts

• Patio deck
• Tile flooring
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• PATIO DECK
• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Cypress Creek Crossing HOA; HOA maintains common areas and recreation facilities; Has homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Slate roof; Built in 2017
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Disposal; Trash compactor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the second floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor; Game room on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-654 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (33.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pat Reynolds El (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 836 students, 86% FRL); Edwin M Wells Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 89% FRL); Westfield H S (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,574 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,541 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,275
• List price: $349,991
• Delta: 3.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4118 Streambed Trl	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,979 (-6%)	6mo	$359,999	$121	76
4306 Lake Cypress Cir	0.24mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,250 (+3%)	6mo	$409,379	$126	74
4022 Streambed Trl	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,792 (-12%)	2mo	$325,000	$116	69
3818 Gladeridge Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	3,068 (-3%)	6mo	$335,000	$109	67
3918 Stillview Dr	0.15mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,815 (-11%)	8mo	$369,500	$131	60
15515 San Milo Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,056 (-3%)	2mo	$345,000	$113	59
15406 Falling Creek Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,950 (-7%)	3mo	$315,000	$107	56
3614 Shanemoss Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,852 (-10%)	2mo	$299,990	$105	53
15518 San Milo Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,383 (+7%)	2mo	$329,000	$97	52
15007 Walters Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,730 (-14%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	51
15519 San Milo Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,334 (+6%)	8mo	$300,000	$90	50
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,760 (-13%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-85,248
• Equity at exit: $65,817

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-115,361
• Equity at exit: $54,205

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$753 /mo · $9,034/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,545

Max offer price $234,541

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-455	-5% $-554	+0% $-654	+5% $-753	+10% $-852
Rent	-10% $-868	-5% $-761	+0% $-654	+5% $-546	+10% $-439
Rate	-1.0pp $-477	-0.5pp $-565	base $-654	+0.5pp $-744	+1.0pp $-836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.79mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	44d	1	1.00mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	1.34mi
5415 Olympia Fields Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	4163	$3,500	$0.84	3d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,991 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,991 Pending 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,991 Pending 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,991 Pending 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,991 Pending 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $349,991 Pending 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,991 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,991 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,991 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,991 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,991 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,991 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-04-27
    listed $349,991 Active 1009-char remark
14. 2017-12-28
    soldstatus Sold 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This home didn't experience any flooding or leaks during Hurricane Harvey. Fall in love w/ this new KB Home on lake view lot in Cypress Creek Crossing. Create new cuisines in gourmet kitchen w/ built-in appliances, maple cabinetry, & silestone countertops w/ backsplash. Retreat to the master suite w/ double sinks in the vanity & recessed lighting. Relax on your private extended covered patio. Only a short drive to Highway 249 & the Sam Houston Tollway. Sprinkler system included. Call today!

15. 2017-10-25
    status Pending 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This home didn't experience any flooding or leaks during Hurricane Harvey. Fall in love w/ this new KB Home on lake view lot in Cypress Creek Crossing. Create new cuisines in gourmet kitchen w/ built-in appliances, maple cabinetry, & silestone countertops w/ backsplash. Retreat to the master suite w/ double sinks in the vanity & recessed lighting. Relax on your private extended covered patio. Only a short drive to Highway 249 & the Sam Houston Tollway. Sprinkler system included. Call today!

16. 2017-10-18
    listed $251,995 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This home didn't experience any flooding or leaks during Hurricane Harvey. Fall in love w/ this new KB Home on lake view lot in Cypress Creek Crossing. Create new cuisines in gourmet kitchen w/ built-in appliances, maple cabinetry, & silestone countertops w/ backsplash. Retreat to the master suite w/ double sinks in the vanity & recessed lighting. Relax on your private extended covered patio. Only a short drive to Highway 249 & the Sam Houston Tollway. Sprinkler system included. Call today!

17. 2017-10-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This home didn't experience any flooding or leaks during Hurricane Harvey. Fall in love w/ this new KB Home on lake view lot in Cypress Creek Crossing. Create new cuisines in gourmet kitchen w/ built-in appliances, maple cabinetry, & silestone countertops w/ backsplash. Retreat to the master suite w/ double sinks in the vanity & recessed lighting. Relax on your private extended covered patio. Only a short drive to Highway 249 & the Sam Houston Tollway. Sprinkler system included. Call today!

18. 2017-10-06
    price $251,995
19. 2017-09-13
    listed $249,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,034 · $753/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,034 · $753/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$9,034
• − Insurance: −$2,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,609
• − Management: −$2,609
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$13,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,354
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $349,991 HARMLS
• 2017-12-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-10-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-18 Listed $251,995 HARMLS
• 2017-10-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-10-06 Price Changed $251,995 HARMLS
• 2017-09-13 Listed $249,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,034 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.