407 Shelton Ave · New Haven, CT 06511

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1920 4,791 sqft lot Est $259k · 11% under ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 407 Shelton Ave-a timeless Colonial offering space, flexibility, and endless potential for its next owner. With 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and two additional third-floor rooms, this home effortlessly adapts to your lifestyle-whether you need a private home office, guest retreat, or bonus living space. Inside, fresh carpeting creates a bright and refreshed ambiance, while the open-concept kitchen and dining area flows seamlessly from the living room-perfect for both intimate gatherings and entertaining. The upper level features a generously sized primary suite with its own full bath, along with two sun-filled bedrooms. The third floor expands your possibilities even further, showca

Key facts

• Third floor
• Open concept kitchen
• Cozy backyard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COZY BACKYARD
• THIRD FLOOR
• SKYLIGHTS
• IMPRESSIVE STORAGE SPACE
• MINUTES FROM NEW HAVEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; 3 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available in street
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame and concrete construction; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Porch; Gutters; Partial fence; Rear lot; Borders open space

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heat; Natural gas heat; 40-gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Finished walk-up attic; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Betsy Ross Arts Magnet School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #161 of 175 statewide, top 93%, 327 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,290/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,098
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
81 Butler St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,353 (+4%)	5mo	$250,000	$185	78
22 Cherry Ann St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,336 (+3%)	8mo	$185,000	$138	72
209 Augur St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,296 (-0%)	2mo	$385,000	$297	61
84 Willis St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,173 (-10%)	5mo	$225,000	$192	56
16 2nd St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,333 (+2%)	8mo	$265,000	$199	54
84 Second St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,252 (-4%)	3mo	$299,900	$240	53
238 Newhall St	0.28mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,490 (+14%)	3mo	$195,000	$131	53
248 W Ivy St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,486 (+14%)	3mo	$215,000	$145	51
54 Arch St	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (-12%)	8mo	$280,000	$245	45
32 Barraclough Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,460 (+12%)	6mo	$265,000	$182	41
138 Warner St	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-14%)	7mo	$300,000	$268	36
38 Ford St	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,488 (+14%)	7mo	$300,000	$202	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,746
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,916
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,083/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,184

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $149	+0% $84	+5% $18	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-7	+0% $84	+5% $174	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $142	base $84	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 Read St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	25d	1	0.20mi
393 Huntington St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1154	$2,800	$2.43	45d	1	0.21mi
402 Huntington St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	25d	1	0.21mi
705 Dixwell Ave Unit 1R New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	930	$1,650	$1.77	21d	1	0.27mi
693 Dixwell Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,875	$1.55	25d	1	0.29mi
29 Lilac St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1600	$2,650	$1.66	45d	1	0.31mi
27 Lilac St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1388	$2,650	$1.91	13d	1	0.31mi
753 Winchester Ave New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	5d	1	0.31mi
40 Lilac St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	45d	1	0.31mi
248 Bassett St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	45d	1	0.32mi
250 Bassett St Unit 2nd New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	45d	1	0.33mi
250 Bassett St Unit 3rd floor New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	960	$1,900	$1.98	45d	1	0.33mi
312 Huntington St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	45d	1	0.33mi
312 Huntington St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	16d	1	0.33mi
280 Bassett St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.38mi
263 Sheffield Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	25d	1	0.39mi
624 Dixwell Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	958	$1,650	$1.72	21d	1	0.39mi
32 Alstrum St #2 Hamden, CT	3.0	1.0	1656	$2,000	$1.21	4d	1	0.39mi
235 Starr St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,175	$1.98	16d	1	0.40mi
963 Sherman Ave Unit 2ND New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.41mi
224 Huntington St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1362	$2,750	$2.02	5d	1	0.45mi
248 W Hazel St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1176	$2,400	$2.04	25d	1	0.45mi
107 Thompson St Unit 2nd New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	45d	1	0.46mi
351 Mill Rock Rd Unit 351 Hamden, CT	3.0	1.5	1102	$4,500	$4.08	4d	1	0.46mi
62 Sheldon Ter Unit 64-3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1382	$2,095	$1.52	45d	1	0.48mi
317 Mill Rock Rd Hamden, CT	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	0.48mi
110 W Easton St Hamden, CT	3.0	1.0	975	$2,500	$2.56	45d	1	0.52mi
537 Winchester Ave New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1393	$2,550	$1.83	45d	1	0.52mi
84 Sheffield Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,395	$1.96	5d	1	0.53mi
84 Sheffield Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,495	$2.00	23d	1	0.53mi
84 Sheffield Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,395	$1.92	23d	1	0.53mi
517 Winchester Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1441	$3,000	$2.08	45d	1	0.55mi
65 Pine St Unit 2nd floor Hamden, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	5d	1	0.57mi
125 Shelton Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,100	$1.92	5d	1	0.58mi
42 Warner St Hamden, CT	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1017	$2,200	$2.16	4d	5	0.60mi
83 Division St #2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,195	$1.57	13d	1	0.60mi
550 Prospect St #8 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,450	$2.45	45d	1	0.61mi
500 Prospect St Unit 2A New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1099	$2,950	$2.68	45d	1	0.63mi
78 Shelton Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1224	$1,695	$1.38	5d	1	0.68mi
70 Shelton Ave Unit 2L New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	21d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-04
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 2026-04-01
   historical
4. 2026-03-02
   status Under Contract
5. 2026-02-19
   price $232,400
6. 2025-11-21
   status Active
7. 2025-10-14
   status Under Contract
8. 2025-10-06
   listed $234,900 Active
9. 2025-07-14
   historical
10. 2025-03-18
    status Under Contract
11. 2025-02-28
    status Active
12. 2025-02-06
    historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
13. 2024-11-07
    price $249,900
14. 2024-10-10
    listed $259,900 Active
15. 2024-09-15
    historical
16. 2024-08-15
    price $254,900
17. 2024-07-11
    status Active
18. 2024-07-09
    historical
19. 2024-05-22
    price $259,900
20. 2024-04-30
    price $264,900
21. 2024-04-05
    price $267,900
22. 2024-02-25
    price $269,900
23. 2024-01-21
    listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,083 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,083 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$5,083
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,198
• − Management: −$2,198
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,724
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$654
• After-tax cash flow: $1,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $230,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2026-03-02 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $232,400 Smart MLS
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2025-10-14 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $234,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-07-14 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-03-18 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-02-28 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2025-02-06 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $249,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed $259,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-09-15 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $254,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-07-11 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2024-07-09 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $259,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $264,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $267,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-02-25 Price Changed $269,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-01-21 Listed $275,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,083 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.