4915 State Route 245 · Naples, NY 14512

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1999 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom two bath doublewide features a master bedroom with full bath, eat-in kitchen, living room, new furnace and interior paint.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Interior paint
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• MASTER BEDROOM WITH FULL BATH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEW FURNACE
• INTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.1% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#608 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Naples Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #292 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Yates County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yates County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $125k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,080
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,864
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14512

• Home prices YoY: -4.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,062/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-01-17
    listed $124,900 Active 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    This 3 bedroom two bath doublewide features a master bedroom with full bath, eat-in kitchen, living room, new furnace and interior paint.

16. 2016-10-27
    soldstatus $78,852
17. 2005-10-05
    soldstatus $45,000
18. 1998-07-07
    soldstatus $14,000
19. 1996-07-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,062 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,087 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,062
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $2,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Naples Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620220
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,934
• Composite: 47.91/100
• National rank: #2212
• State rank: #292 of 590 in NY

Livability — Naples

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #10973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,908

Population outlook (Yates County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,773 people
• By 2030: 22,867 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 20,750 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 18,917 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 15,090 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 11,428 · -51.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yates

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+21.9 2012: R+3.0 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.68%
• Current HPI: 301.9192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+940.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $124,900 CNYIS
• 2016-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $78,852 Public Records
• 2005-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,062 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.