2500 Johnson Ave Unit 6T · New York, NY 10463

$220,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Condo · 84 Days on market

Built 1967

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Your New Home at The Winston Churchill! Bright and spacious with captivating views of the Spuyten Duyvil Creek, this 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom co-op at 2500 Johnson Avenue combines comfort, convenience, and an unbeatable lifestyle in the heart of Spuyten Duyvil. Apartment Features: Expansive living room and dining alcove filled with natural light, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Functional pass-through kitchen equipped with a dishwasher and abundant cabinet space. Generously sized bedroom with parquet wood floors and deep closets for ample storage. Central air, heat, cooking gas, hot water, and cable/internet provided at a discounted rate. Tons of closet space throughout, offer

Key facts

• Parquet wood floors
• Deep closets
• Large indoor pool

Tags

• PASS-THROUGH KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• PARQUET WOOD FLOORS
• DEEP CLOSETS
• CENTRAL AIR
• LARGE INDOOR POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.71%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $16,862
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $128,729
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10463

• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $753	-5% $677	+0% $601	+5% $525	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $495	+0% $601	+5% $707	+10% $813
Rate	-1.0pp $712	-0.5pp $657	base $601	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,775	$2.45	24d	3	0.20mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watergasinternetcable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-31
   status Active
3. 2025-10-31
   status Active
4. 2025-08-09
   status Pending
5. 2025-06-24
   status Active
6. 2025-06-24
   listed $220,000 Active
7. 2025-02-11
   status Pending
8. 2025-01-30
   listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,578
• − Management: −$2,578
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $3,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$947
• After-tax cash flow: $6,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,470
• Household income: $74,974
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5586.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1% Dominican 25%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.75%
• Current HPI: 168.0211
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.60%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $220,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2025-02-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-30 Listed $220,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid