29 Shorty Rd · Buffalo, MO 65622

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Other public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1967 0.46 ac lot $100/sqft · 43% below area Est $158k · 43% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Buffalo, Missouri, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home at 29 Shorty Rd offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and rural living. Surrounded by open space and natural beauty, the property provides a quiet retreat while still being within easy reach of town amenities. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with spacious living areas, a full kitchen, and two comfortable bedrooms. Whether you're enjoying your morning coffee with scenic views, relaxing after a long day, or looking for a place to spread out and make your own, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle with plenty of potential. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking a slower pace.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Peaceful countryside
• Functional layout

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRYSIDE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• FULL KITCHEN
• SCENIC VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#181 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dallas County R-I (town): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #278 of 324 in MO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,786
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -43.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,399
• Equity at exit: $14,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $15,354
• Equity at exit: $9,091

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65622

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $702

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $89,900 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $89,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   price $94,900 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Buffalo, Missouri, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home at 29 Shorty Rd offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and rural living. Surrounded by open space and natural beauty, the property provides a quiet retreat while still being within easy reach of town amenities. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with spacious living areas, a full kitchen, and two comfortable bedrooms. Whether you're enjoying your morning coffee with scenic views, relaxing after a long day, or looking for a place to spread out and make your own, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle with plenty of potential. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking a slower pace.

7. 2026-04-18
   listed $99,900 Active 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Tucked away in the peaceful countryside of Buffalo, Missouri, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home at 29 Shorty Rd offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and rural living. Surrounded by open space and natural beauty, the property provides a quiet retreat while still being within easy reach of town amenities. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with spacious living areas, a full kitchen, and two comfortable bedrooms. Whether you're enjoying your morning coffee with scenic views, relaxing after a long day, or looking for a place to spread out and make your own, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle with plenty of potential. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking a slower pace.

8. 2024-01-05
   soldstatus
9. 2006-06-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 58.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$223
• After-tax cash flow: $2,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2906120
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,067
• Composite: 24.19/100
• National rank: #7735
• State rank: #278 of 324 in MO

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #9481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,591

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,419 people
• By 2030: 14,668 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,045 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 11,341 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 8,096 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 5,656 · -63.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.3% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.81%
• Current HPI: 256.066
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $94,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-18 Listed $99,900 SOMO
• 2024-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.