623 E Chestnut St · Hubbard, IA 50122

$124,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 210 Days on market

Built 1900 0.26 ac lot $94/sqft · 10% below area Est $138k · 10% under ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Call to see this great home in the friendly town of Hubbard. A perfect place to make a home for your family or income potential as a rental. Newer roof & siding. New heating system in 2026! Appliances stay.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Newer siding
• Newer heating system

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER SIDING
• NEWER HEATING SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#508 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hubbard-Radcliffe Community School District (rural): math 68% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #175 of 289 in IA (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($861 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,920
• List price: $124,500
• Delta: -9.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 N Wisconsin St	0.39mi	4/1.0	1,296 (-2%)	0mo	$10,000	$8	78
301 E Elm St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,290 (-3%)	22mo	$120,000	$93	59
213 S Illinois St	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,172 (-12%)	21mo	$132,500	$113	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $32,819
• Equity at exit: $60,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $92,775
• Equity at exit: $97,979

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50122

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $124,500

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,500 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,500 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,500 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,500 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,500 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,500 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,500 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,500 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,500 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,500 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,500 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,500 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,500 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,500 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,500 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $124,500 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Call to see this great home in the friendly town of Hubbard. A perfect place to make a home for your family or income potential as a rental. Newer roof & siding. New heating system in 2026! Appliances stay.

17. 2025-11-20
    listed $128,500 Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Call to see this great home in the friendly town of Hubbard. A perfect place to make a home for your family or income potential as a rental. Newer roof & siding. New heating system in 2026! Appliances stay.

18. 2025-09-10
    price $128,500
19. 2025-07-29
    price $135,000
20. 2025-06-24
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable income: $491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hubbard-Radcliffe Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1914310
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,284
• Composite: 57.09/100
• National rank: #1103
• State rank: #175 of 289 in IA

Livability — Hubbard

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #11245

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hubbard, IA
• City population: 1,348
• Population (ZIP): 1,348

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,474 people
• By 2030: 17,369 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 17,018 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 16,454 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 14,665 · -16.1%
• By 2100: 12,404 · -29.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.3% · R 68.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.70%
• Current HPI: 164.9646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $124,500 CIBOR
• 2025-11-20 Listed $128,500 CIBOR
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $128,500 IAR
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $135,000 IAR
• 2025-06-24 Listed $140,000 IAR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,244 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.