422 Forrest Ave · Lacey, NJ 08734

$439,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1962 9,583 sqft lot Est $662k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (listed) — no garage spaces reported
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator; Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer; Ceiling fan(s); Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator; Gas cooking; Fireplace (2 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($77k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $439k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 60% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $439k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.18%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $662,220
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Cedar Run Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,334 (-0%)	19mo	$660,000	$283	69
227 Predmore Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,310 (-1%)	11mo	$452,000	$196	68
601 Laurel Blvd	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,290 (-2%)	7mo	$795,000	$347	62
6 Key Largo Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,425 (+4%)	4mo	$675,000	$278	53
7 Albatross Pt	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,158 (-8%)	3mo	$820,000	$380	51
825 Laurel Blvd	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,450 (+5%)	11mo	$950,000	$388	50
714 Laurel Blvd	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,083 (-11%)	10mo	$710,000	$341	48
307 Cedar Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,160 (-8%)	2mo	$491,000	$227	47
—	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,991 (-15%)	19mo	$340,990	$171	46
—	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,152 (-8%)	15mo	$245,000	$114	42
202 Cedar Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-9%)	5mo	$454,250	$213	42
419 Chestnut Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (-14%)	19mo	$585,000	$292	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $337,036
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $819,650
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$526 /mo · $6,308/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,521
• Net cashflow: $6,405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,895

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	1d	1	0.30mi
9 Halifax Rd Bayville, NJ	2.0	2.5	1689	$3,200	$1.89	1d	1	1.05mi
830 Atlantic City Blvd Bayville, NJ	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,800	$1.61	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $439,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $439,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $439,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $439,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $439,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-25
   historical $439,000
10. 2019-02-19
    soldstatus $255,000
11. 2019-02-07
    soldstatus $255,000 Sold 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    The ?WOW? factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot.

12. 2019-02-07
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    The ?WOW? factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot.

13. 2018-12-10
    status Under Contract 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

14. 2018-12-10
    status Pending 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

15. 2018-11-08
    price $249,900 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

16. 2018-11-08
    price $249,900 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

17. 2018-07-20
    price $269,000 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

18. 2018-07-20
    price $269,000 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

19. 2018-06-01
    listed $275,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

20. 2018-06-01
    listed $275,000 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    The ''WOW'' factor starts from the moment you enter the front door and gaze upon the large, bright living/dining room with soaring cathedral ceiling, palladium windows, stone-faced wood burning fireplace and sliders to the backyard. To the right is a luxurious sunken kitchen with granite counters and SS appliances, which is adjacent to the cozy family room with yet another stone-faced wood burning fireplace! Gleaming tile floors and recessed lighting grace the entire first level, which also has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Upstairs can be the perfect master retreat! A loft with Juliette balcony, large bedroom and yet another full bath. Outside, fire up your brick oven for pizza while you sit on the large patio and relax with a cool beverage. Home is nestled on a maintenance-free 100 x 100 lot

21. 2017-10-31
    historical
22. 2017-10-30
    historical
23. 2017-05-11
    listed $289,000 Active
24. 2017-05-11
    listed $289,000 Active
25. 2017-04-27
    historical
26. 2017-04-26
    historical
27. 2016-10-26
    listed $299,900 Active
28. 2016-10-26
    listed $299,900 Active
29. 2016-09-17
    historical
30. 2016-09-16
    historical
31. 2016-07-17
    price $329,900
32. 2016-07-06
    price $329,900
33. 2016-05-18
    listed $349,000 Active
34. 2016-05-18
    listed $349,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,308 · $526/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,619 · $718/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,312/yr (+$193/mo · 36.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,308
• − Insurance: −$2,992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,523
• − Management: −$11,523
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable income: $74,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,840
• After-tax cash flow: $59,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lacey

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+25.8% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Coming Soon $439,000 MOMLS
• 2019-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-07 Sold (MLS) $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-07 Sold (MLS) $255,000 MOMLS
• 2018-12-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-10 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-11-08 Price Changed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-08 Price Changed $249,900 MOMLS
• 2018-07-20 Price Changed $269,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-20 Price Changed $269,000 MOMLS
• 2018-06-01 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-01 Listed $275,000 MOMLS
• 2017-10-31 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2017-10-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-11 Listed $289,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-11 Listed $289,000 MOMLS
• 2017-04-27 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2017-04-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-26 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2016-10-26 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-17 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2016-09-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-17 Price Changed $329,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-06 Price Changed $329,900 MOMLS
• 2016-05-18 Listed $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-05-18 Listed $349,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2021): $6,308 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.