13 Bittersweet Ave S · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 232 Days on market

Built 1994 0.55 ac lot Est $1262k · 11% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning Fully Renovated Home in the Heart of Hampton Bays: where modern luxury meets everyday comfort. This beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 3-bath home is thoughtfully designed for both relaxed living and stylish entertaining. At the heart of the home is a gourmet chef’s kitchen, featuring top-of-the-line Bosch gas range, hood, quartz countertops, and an oversized 8' x 5' waterfall island with double-sided cabinetry—perfect for prep, dining, and conversation. Additional premium appliances include a French door refrigerator with freezer drawer, microwave drawer, dishwasher, and an XO wine cabinet for your favorite beverages. The open-concept layout flows effortlessly from the k

Key facts

• Stylish wet bar
• Electric fireplace
• 0.55 acre lot

Tags

• GOURMET CHEFS KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED WATERFALL ISLAND
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN SHELVING
• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• STYLISH WET BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.12M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.04M (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $990k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,401/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $315k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($990k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $990,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.65%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,261,524
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Bittersweet Ave S	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,012 (0%)	1mo	$989,000	$492	95
75 Squiretown Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,915 (-5%)	10mo	$739,500	$386	76
10 Pepi Ct	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,024 (+1%)	6mo	$1,270,000	$627	60
50 Squiretown Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,864 (-7%)	16mo	$960,000	$515	58
47A Old Squires Rd	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,184 (+8%)	9mo	$910,000	$417	48
9 Debbie Trl	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,199 (+9%)	6mo	$1,450,000	$659	47
4 Red Creek Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (-6%)	23mo	$2,000,000	$1,058	45
16 Quail Run	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,280 (+13%)	12mo	$1,670,000	$732	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-49,905
• Equity at exit: $167,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $305,533
• Equity at exit: $97,269

Cash invested: $315,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,900
• Tax from tax record: −$628 /mo · $7,536/yr
• Insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,184
• Net cashflow: $1,221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,856

Max offer price $1,125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $281,250
• Closing costs: $33,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Bittersweet Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1910	$55,000	$28.80	43d	1	0.07mi
10 Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$45,000	$28.85	24d	1	0.19mi
18 Quail Run Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	3000	$4,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.48mi
30 Squires Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2220	$25,000	$11.26	24d	1	0.55mi
32 Red Creek Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1613	$22,000	$13.64	5d	1	0.59mi
38 Red Creek Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2200	$20,000	$9.09	43d	1	0.68mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	18d	1	0.77mi
20 Stuart Ct Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.5	2168	$20,000	$9.23	24d	1	0.83mi
57 Newtown Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2690	$25,000	$9.29	24d	1	0.84mi
6 W Landing Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2291	$30,000	$13.09	6d	1	0.86mi
10 Ginny Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2596	$30,000	$11.56	24d	1	1.01mi
48 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$12,500	$5.21	18d	1	1.12mi
190A Wakeman Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2742	$70,000	$25.53	24d	1	1.15mi
28 Canoe Place Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2870	$45,000	$15.68	43d	1	1.26mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.31mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,445	$4.30	1d	1	1.43mi
9 Carter Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2820	$90,000	$31.91	24d	1	1.43mi
2 Red Creek Cir Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2274	$15,000	$6.60	18d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   price $1,125,000
3. 2025-11-12
   price $1,175,000
4. 2025-07-26
   listed $1,195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,536 · $628/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,274 · $1,106/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,738/yr (+$478/mo · 76.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $124,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$63,017
• − Property taxes: −$7,536
• − Insurance: −$5,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,985
• − Management: −$9,985
• − Depreciation: −$32,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$974
• After-tax cash flow: $15,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $1,125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $1,175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,536 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.