16350 W Little Beaver Lake Access · Big Lake, AK 99652

$129,000

1 bd · None ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2004 Poor condition 1.00 ac lot Est $125k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Getaway-Starter Home. Alaskan outdoor paradise just steps to W. Little Beaver Lake and short walk to W. Beaver Lake. Newly re built dry cabin with outhouse, spray foam insulation 5-1/2 to 6 inches thick, Toyo stove with 300 gal oil tank, ceilings fans, custom blackout shades, USB outlets, rubber backed commercial backed carpet, 1 bedroom, full kitchen, great room, arctic entry, dining area offers a lot of natural light and tall ceilings. This cabin sits on approx 1 acre of flat land partially cleared and landscapped with trees, planters and D-1. You can swim, fish, ride your quad and snow machine for miles right from your front door or you can relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. We ran 200 amp service lighting with Wi-Fi camera and fiber optic internet. Outside dimensions are 32'4 long x12'8 wide. Oil usage was about 150 gal in 15 months at a constant temperature of 70 degrees. Electric is about $30.00/month. SELLER WILL CONSIDER OWNER FINANCING WITH 35% DOWN. The Seller is selling the home next to this lot-see MLS#24-5267.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Convenient access
• Airbnb use

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• FLEXIBLE USE POTENTIAL
• AIRBNB USE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size: 1.0 acre

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s); CO detector(s)
• Utilities: Sewer: Holding tank or none; Road surface: Dirt and gravel; Waterfront on the lot
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Built in 2004; Wood frame (2x6) construction; Metal roof; Holding tank sewer or no sewer
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fire service area; Outhouse; Road service area; Scenic view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: No full, half, or three-quarter bathrooms listed
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Arctic entry; Bedroom and bathroom on main level; Ceiling fan(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Family room; Smoke detector(s); Vaulted ceiling(s); Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.15%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16350 W Little Beaver Lake Access	0.00mi	1/—	400 (0%)	24mo	$124,995	$312	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $36,937
• Equity at exit: $58,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $101,590
• Equity at exit: $89,391

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 380-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $129,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$504
• After-tax cash flow: $3,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This dry cabin requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Significant work is needed in the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and HVAC system.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — basic and worn
• Major roof — visible wear
• Major exterior siding — bare and worn
• Major flooring — carpeted and worn
• Major interior walls — bare and worn
• Major windows — basic and worn
• Major HVAC system — basic and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modern fixtures improve aesthetics
• Both landscape exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both HVAC system upgrade — modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · bare and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · carpeted and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · bare and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · basic and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · basic and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modern fixtures improve aesthetics ↑
• Both landscape exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• City population: 4,066
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $129,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-23 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2024-05-23 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $124,995 AKMLS
• 2024-01-23 Listed $134,995 AKMLS