CABOT Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$234,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With 1,684 square feet, the Cabot plan is a functional design with a modern touch. The functional use of space makes the Cabot easy to live in, but the modern open design makes it fun too! Combined formals and a peninsula kitchen create a central living area, promoting togetherness. Yet a private primary suite located in the back of the home, separate from the other secondary bedrooms, still offers the privacy everyone needs. Options include a covered patio, perfect for summer grilling.

Key facts

• Peninsula kitchen
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PENINSULA KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $234,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $223,226.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,226
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: 5.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9534 Shady Trail Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,684 (0%)	1mo	$238,900	$142	66
14112 Biscayne Trl	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,570 (-7%)	10mo	$232,650	$148	60
14381 High Hill Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-3%)	4mo	$199,000	$122	59
9521 Last Maples Trl	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,553 (-8%)	11mo	$246,730	$159	55
14208 Sedona Ridge Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,567 (-7%)	10mo	$225,000	$144	54
9320 Shady Creek Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+6%)	7mo	$249,900	$140	54
9151 White Tail Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,884 (+12%)	6mo	$545,000	$289	53
14208 Cypress Laurel Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (+11%)	6mo	$265,000	$142	47
14423 Elmfield Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (+11%)	2mo	$242,900	$130	45
14427 Elmfield Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+15%)	1mo	$249,900	$129	40
9633 Caney Trails Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,907 (+13%)	11mo	$239,900	$126	39
9782 Caney Bend Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+15%)	3mo	$239,900	$124	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,407
• Equity at exit: $33,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-43,536
• Equity at exit: $19,300

Cash invested: $62,503 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,171
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,348/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,953

Max offer price $223,226

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $201	+0% $124	+5% $47	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $41	+0% $124	+5% $208	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $181	base $124	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,806
• Closing costs: $6,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	44d	1	0.11mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	1d	15	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,992	$1.11	3d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,990 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,990 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,990 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,990 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,990 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,990 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,990 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,990 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,990 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,990 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,990 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,990 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,990 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-01-06
    listed $234,990 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    With 1,684 square feet, the Cabot plan is a functional design with a modern touch. The functional use of space makes the Cabot easy to live in, but the modern open design makes it fun too! Combined formals and a peninsula kitchen create a central living area, promoting togetherness. Yet a private primary suite located in the back of the home, separate from the other secondary bedrooms, still offers the privacy everyone needs. Options include a covered patio, perfect for summer grilling.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,504
• − Property taxes: −$3,348
• − Insurance: −$1,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − Depreciation: −$6,494
• Taxable loss: −$2,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $2,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Cabot plan is a well-maintained single-family home with good curb appeal and functional living spaces. Minor updates to the exterior and flooring would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace worn-out flooring — New flooring improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace worn-out flooring — New flooring improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $234,990 Zillow