650 Granite Rd · Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$425,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,297 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1970 2.00 ac lot $185/sqft · 34% below area Est $648k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Fully Available * * Serenity meets versatility. This beautifully maintained home offers a rare combination of space and location. Situated on two sprawling acres, the property provides plenty of room to garden, play, or simply enjoy the sounds of nature. The oversized detached garage is a standout feature with additional space for creative pursuits or a professional workspace. Entertain with ease in the gran living room or host summer BBQs on the large deck overlooking the backyard. Located in the heart of Kerhonkson, you are minutes away from Minnewaska State Park, Westwind Orchard, and Arrowood Farms.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Two sprawling acres
• Heart of kerhonkson

Tags

• TWO SPRAWLING ACRES
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE DECK
• HEART OF KERHONKSON

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Oversized garage; Garage with storage; Two garage spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wood stove heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; One-level living; 11 total rooms; No basement; Crawl attic
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (55.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (49.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (55.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kerhonkson Elementary School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,574 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 209 students, 54% FRL); Rondout Valley Junior High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 243 students, 42% FRL); Rondout Valley High School (math 87% / reading 64%, grade A-, #623 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 569 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; list at $425k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,581 (55.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.88%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $648,424
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -34.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $145,955
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $497,301
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12446

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$554 /mo · $6,652/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-1,344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,831

Max offer price $187,581

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $425,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 617-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $425,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $425,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    * * Fully Available * * Serenity meets versatility. This beautifully maintained home offers a rare combination of space and location. Situated on two sprawling acres, the property provides plenty of room to garden, play, or simply enjoy the sounds of nature. The oversized detached garage is a standout feature with additional space for creative pursuits or a professional workspace. Entertain with ease in the gran living room or host summer BBQs on the large deck overlooking the backyard. Located in the heart of Kerhonkson, you are minutes away from Minnewaska State Park, Westwind Orchard, and Arrowood Farms.

18. 2026-04-23
    listed $425,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    * * Fully Available * * Serenity meets versatility. This beautifully maintained home offers a rare combination of space and location. Situated on two sprawling acres, the property provides plenty of room to garden, play, or simply enjoy the sounds of nature. The oversized detached garage is a standout feature with additional space for creative pursuits or a professional workspace. Entertain with ease in the gran living room or host summer BBQs on the large deck overlooking the backyard. Located in the heart of Kerhonkson, you are minutes away from Minnewaska State Park, Westwind Orchard, and Arrowood Farms.

19. 2025-05-20
    price $439,000
20. 2025-02-12
    price $465,000
21. 2024-12-26
    listed $500,000 Active
22. 2024-09-26
    price $525,000
23. 2024-09-04
    price $549,000
24. 2024-07-29
    price $574,500
25. 2024-06-25
    listed $599,000 Active
26. 2019-08-12
    soldstatus $198,000
27. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus $198,000
28. 2019-01-07
    listed $209,900
29. 2012-10-15
    listed $229,000
30. 2000-06-06
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,652 · $554/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,917 · $576/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,652
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$24,275
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,826
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rondout Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,408
• Composite: 39.5/100
• National rank: #3949
• State rank: #447 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,232
• Population (ZIP): 5,232

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.32%
• Current HPI: 380.6732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+564.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-27 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $425,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $439,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $465,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-12-26 Listed $500,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $525,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $549,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $574,500 HVCRMLS
• 2024-06-25 Listed $599,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) $198,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-01-07 Listed $209,900 HVCRMLS
• 2012-10-15 Listed $229,000 HVCRMLS
• 2000-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,652 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.