2838 Geary Pl #4017 · Winchester, NV 89109

$205,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 869 sqft · Condo public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1974 $478/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this rare, move-in ready, downstairs corner unit in the guard gated Las Vegas Country Club, nestled in the sought after Monterey community and surrounded by a championship golf course. Famously featured in the iconic film Casino, this community offers classic Las Vegas appeal! This upgraded condo showcases luxury vinyl plank flooring, soft close J & K cabinetry, and granite countertops in the kitchen and bath. The kitchen includes all appliances, stainless steel refrigerator with ice maker, and Whirlpool washer and dryer. The spacious primary bedroom features two walk-in closets and a built-in vanity that doubles as the perfect workspace or dressing area. The bathroom includes a dual-sink vanity for added functionality and comfort. Enjoy resort style amenities including five pools with one just steps away, BBQ areas, fitness center, and 24 hour guard gated security. Minutes to the Strip, airport, UNLV, dining, and shopping.

Key facts

• Soft close cabinetry
• Guard gated
• Monterey community

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS CORNER UNIT
• GUARD GATED
• MONTEREY COMMUNITY
• CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF COURSE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,051/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 836% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.22% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,959
• Equity at exit: $37,721

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-56,794
• Equity at exit: $30,263

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89109

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$478
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $189,287

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2831 Geary Pl #2909 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,899	$1.71	43d	1	0.08mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1109	$2,240	$2.02	3d	3	0.31mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,250	$2.03	4d	3	0.31mi
222 Karen Ave #306 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,300	$2.83	43d	1	0.38mi
222 Karen Ave #3203 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,500	$3.07	43d	1	0.38mi
222 Karen Ave #3005 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,400	$2.95	23d	1	0.38mi
222 Karen Ave #1105 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$1,990	$2.44	43d	1	0.38mi
222 Karen Ave #1004 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,300	$2.83	23d	1	0.38mi
222 Karen Ave #2904 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,200	$2.70	1d	1	0.38mi
511 E Sahara Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	43d	3	0.40mi
900 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,500	$1.39	43d	5	0.61mi
525 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,525	$1.39	43d	1	0.71mi
200 W Sahara Ave #1611 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	43d	1	0.76mi
2700 Las Vegas Blvd S Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–2.5	1283	$2,792	$2.18	12d	4	0.79mi
2700 Las Vegas Blvd S Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1226	$2,200	$1.79	17d	4	0.79mi
350 E Desert Inn Rd Unit H203 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	849	$1,725	$2.03	43d	1	0.81mi
1040 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	969	$1,745	$1.80	43d	1	0.90mi
3550 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,100	$1.16	43d	20	0.96mi
595 S Royal Crest Cir #18 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	43d	1	1.06mi
123 W Imperial Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,481	$2.58	1d	285	1.28mi
3776 Howard Hughes Pkwy Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.5	1548	$2,357	$1.52	1d	9	1.28mi
1201 S 3rd St Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,745	$1.90	7d	70	1.34mi
3930 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$2,241	$2.24	2d	87	1.34mi
3930 University Center Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–3.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	43d	2	1.41mi
2000 Fashion Show Dr Unit 1501424P Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.0	592	$5,942	$10.04	2d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $478 · $5,736/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-02-18
    listed $205,000 Active 957-char remark

    Show marketing remark (957 chars)

    Welcome home to this rare, move-in ready, downstairs corner unit in the guard gated Las Vegas Country Club, nestled in the sought after Monterey community and surrounded by a championship golf course. Famously featured in the iconic film Casino, this community offers classic Las Vegas appeal! This upgraded condo showcases luxury vinyl plank flooring, soft close J & K cabinetry, and granite countertops in the kitchen and bath. The kitchen includes all appliances, stainless steel refrigerator with ice maker, and Whirlpool washer and dryer. The spacious primary bedroom features two walk-in closets and a built-in vanity that doubles as the perfect workspace or dressing area. The bathroom includes a dual-sink vanity for added functionality and comfort. Enjoy resort style amenities including five pools with one just steps away, BBQ areas, fitness center, and 24 hour guard gated security. Minutes to the Strip, airport, UNLV, dining, and shopping.

14. 2025-09-09
    historical
15. 2025-06-13
    listed $220,000 Active
16. 2022-07-07
    soldstatus $195,000
17. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed
18. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus $165,000
19. 2021-09-28
    status Pending
20. 2021-09-16
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2021-09-10
    listed $165,000 Active
22. 2011-06-30
    soldstatus $28,000 Sold
23. 2011-06-20
    status Pending
24. 2011-06-15
    historical Contingent Offer
25. 2011-05-16
    listed $33,500 Exclusive Right

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$358/yr (+$30/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − HOA: −$5,736
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $-15/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2272

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,306,105 people
• City population: 39,883
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 6,504
• Household income: $53,684
• Rent vs Own: 65.3% rent · 34.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 836.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 7% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.22%
• Current HPI: 180.1607
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+511.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $205,000 GLVAR
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2025-06-13 Listed $220,000 GLVAR
• 2022-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-07 Sold (MLS) $165,000 GLVAR
• 2021-09-28 Pending — GLVAR
• 2021-09-16 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2021-09-10 Listed $165,000 GLVAR
• 2011-06-30 Sold (MLS) $28,000 GLVAR
• 2011-06-20 Pending — GLVAR
• 2011-06-15 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2011-05-16 Listed $33,500 GLVAR

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $852 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.