3039 Sego Ln · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1969 4,500 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION! You'll love this lovely spacious move-in ready, furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the friendly, active, gated 55+ community of Skyview Estates in SE Lakeland. All the furniture, tools, kitchen, and household items convey with the home. .Remodel was complete two years ago including a new air conditioner, new electrical panel, and a whole house replumb. The kitchen has been remodeled including wood cabinets, remodeled bathrooms and large walk in closets providing plenty of storage. Skyview Estates has a private fishing pier on Blue Lake so bring your rod and bait and take a short walk or a ride on your golf cart to the private lakeside community park and fishing pier for a morning or evening of quiet and relaxing fishing, or enjoyable some quality time with friends around the firepit for morning coffee and doughnuts or an evening around the fire relaxing with friends. . The large recreational building has a full kitchen for the many fun community activities where you'll meet all your neighbors and make new friends. You own the land – no lot rent – HOA fee is only $400 a YEAR!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog park
• Shuffleboard courts

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OWN THE LAND
• CLUBHOUSE
• DOG PARK
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• PRIVATE FISHING PIER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned PUD; Lot approximately 0.1 acre (50 x 90)
• HOA & community: HOA required with $400 annual fee ($33.33/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built on a crawlspace
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Wood; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Formal dining area; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $125k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-11,857
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,994
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	23d	1	0.25mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	23d	1	0.33mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	23d	1	0.34mi
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	23d	1	0.37mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	3d	1	0.39mi
3061 Crystal Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	23d	1	0.52mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	14d	1	0.54mi
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	14d	1	0.57mi
1922 Crystal Grove Dr #1922 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,547	$1.53	23d	1	0.99mi
1969 Crystal Grove Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,415	$2.46	3d	8	1.06mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.36mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.36mi
3330 Jean Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	616	$1,300	$2.11	23d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: electricsecurity

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 586-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $125,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $30
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $2,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+212.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-12 Sold (MLS) $83,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $91,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-19 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.