4840 Baldwin Hills Dr · Clayton, OH 45322

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1971 9,627 sqft lot Est $207k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the home you have been waiting for! 3 bedroom ranch home with 1.5 bathrooms and 2 car garage that is completely fenced in with a nicely shaded yard and concrete patio. There have been many updates including: roof, siding, windows, garage door, storm door, lighting, toilets, furnace, and air conditioning. There is new flooring in both bathrooms and laundry room. The kitchen offers a spacious area for the entire family to dine in, an island with range, refrigerator, brand new dishwasher, and wood laminate flooring. Don't delay come see this home today!

Key facts

• Large utility room
• 9,627 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story; Residential zoning
• Construction: Brick, frame, and vinyl siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level (12 x 10); Bedroom on main level (10 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level (11 x 8); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-449/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northmont City (suburban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #318 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $225k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $188,473 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,075
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4900 Baldwin Hills Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,255 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$179	97
6042 Cinnamon Tree Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-0%)	2mo	$169,900	$136	85
4941 Scothills Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,255 (0%)	14mo	$165,000	$131	84
6055 Layne Hills Ct	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,255 (0%)	4mo	$207,000	$165	82
5071 Seville Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+10%)	2mo	$230,000	$167	72
6800 Glenhills Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+7%)	10mo	$220,600	$164	70
4329 Gorman Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	4mo	$199,000	$142	60
1976 Swallowtail Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-2%)	6mo	$210,000	$171	58
605 Rubythroat Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,197 (-5%)	2mo	$189,125	$158	55
1029 Meadow Thrush Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	6mo	$248,000	$177	48
228 Southerly Hills Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-7%)	17mo	$195,000	$167	43
4655 Rathburn Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+15%)	14mo	$225,000	$156	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-44,355
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-62,993
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45322

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,032/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,932

Max offer price $218,391

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5011 Scothills Dr Englewood, OH	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,595	$1.50	3d	1	0.19mi
6844 Union Rd Englewood, OH	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	3d	1	0.22mi
421 Porter Dr Englewood, OH	2.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	14d	1	0.81mi
321 Lauren Circle Dr Englewood, OH	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	14d	1	0.90mi
4564 Linchmere Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	3.0	1096	$1,595	$1.46	14d	1	1.01mi
5900 Macduff Dr Dayton, OH	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$1,467	$1.33	3d	17	1.10mi
416 W Wenger Rd Englewood, OH	3.0	1.5	1249	$2,000	$1.60	3d	1	1.16mi
778 Union Blvd Englewood, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	833	$1,375	$1.65	2d	5	1.34mi
603 Rolice Ct Englewood, OH	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,032 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,271 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,032
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northmont City
• NCES district ID: 3904872
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,230
• Composite: 49.53/100
• National rank: #1995
• State rank: #318 of 656 in OH

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #5877

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 37,953
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 20,884
• Household income: $75,349
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.42%
• Current HPI: 218.5409
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+164.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $225,000 Dayton MLS
• 2017-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $97,300 Public Records
• 2017-03-31 Sold (MLS) $97,300 Dayton MLS
• 2017-03-31 Sold (MLS) $97,300 Dayton MLS
• 2017-03-16 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2017-03-02 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2017-03-01 Listed $99,900 Dayton MLS
• 2017-01-20 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2016-07-27 Price Changed $104,900 Dayton MLS
• 2016-07-15 Price Changed $107,900 Dayton MLS
• 2016-06-15 Listed $109,900 Dayton MLS
• 2004-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 2004-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records
• 2002-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $92,400 Public Records
• 1999-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,032 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.