348 Gonzalez St · Zapata, TX 78076

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1997 10,800 sqft lot $74/sqft · 22% below area Est $180k · 22% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Brick home located in a friendly neighborhood. Classic design offers timeless appeal with great flow. This 3BR/2BA plus office (possible 4th BR) home features tile floors for easy maintenance and a clean look throughout, spacious living, custom kitchen, attached single carport. Large lot with ample outdoor space for gardening, play or future expansion. Close to school, parks, and shopping. This home invites you to create lasting memories with family and friends. Don't miss out on this opportunity!

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Tile floors
• Large lot

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• TILE FLOORS
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• ATTACHED SINGLE CARPORT
• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-59/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#903 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,154
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -22.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $13,707
• Equity at exit: $59,886

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $52,946
• Equity at exit: $89,976

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,447/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $139,127

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-01-30
    listed $140,000 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Charming Brick home located in a friendly neighborhood. Classic design offers timeless appeal with great flow. This 3BR/2BA plus office (possible 4th BR) home features tile floors for easy maintenance and a clean look throughout, spacious living, custom kitchen, attached single carport. Large lot with ample outdoor space for gardening, play or future expansion. Close to school, parks, and shopping. This home invites you to create lasting memories with family and friends. Don't miss out on this opportunity!

17. 2025-08-05
    price $140,000
18. 2025-07-08
    price $162,000
19. 2025-03-04
    listed $172,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,447 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,447
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$579
• After-tax cash flow: $519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Zapata

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #903
• US rank: #16191

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zapata, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $140,000 LAOR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $140,000 LAOR
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $162,000 LAOR
• 2025-03-04 Listed $172,000 LAOR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,447 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.