St. Kitts II Plan · Ellenton, FL 34219

$264,290

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,787 sqft · Townhouse · 558 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Loft area
• Garage

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• LOFT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $262,290

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family plan (St. Kitts II); Active listing
• Construction: Built as part of a new-construction inventory plan
• Exterior features: New construction plan: St. Kitts II; Address: Parrish, FL (9032 Bay Leaf Dr)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (1787 living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $264,290 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,364.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $264k).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 558 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,575 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 558 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,364
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9363 Cannon Beach Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,787 (0%)	10mo	$259,000	$145	84
9417 Cannon Beach Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,787 (0%)	10mo	$248,740	$139	83
9450 Cannon Beach Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,801 (+1%)	10mo	$284,900	$158	79
9144 Gulf Haven Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+1%)	3mo	$299,990	$166	75
9230 Gulf Haven Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+1%)	2mo	$325,000	$180	74
9141 Gulf Haven Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+1%)	3mo	$311,990	$173	74
7566 Sea Oak Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+1%)	1mo	$334,000	$185	72
9371 Cannon Beach Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,666 (-7%)	10mo	$250,300	$150	72
7618 Sea Oak Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+1%)	3mo	$309,990	$172	71
9246 Gulf Haven Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+1%)	6mo	$310,000	$172	71
7575 Sea Oak Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,043 (+14%)	10mo	$397,000	$194	55
9242 Gulf Haven Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,043 (+14%)	7mo	$354,908	$174	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-50,272
• Equity at exit: $45,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,737
• Equity at exit: $26,575

Cash invested: $86,062 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,844 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,612
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,610/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $307,364

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,841
• Closing costs: $9,221
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.06mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	24d	1	0.18mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	24d	1	0.21mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	24d	1	0.24mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.30mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	2d	32	0.34mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	15d	1	0.47mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	0.56mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	0.56mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	0.86mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	24d	1	0.90mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.90mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	3d	1	0.99mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.08mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	1.24mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	10d	1	1.24mi
8330 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2473	$2,900	$1.17	16d	1	1.33mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,290 Active 558 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,290 Active 557 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,290 Active 556 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,290 Active 555 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,290 Active 553 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $264,290 Active 552 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $262,290 Active 550 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $262,290 Active 549 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $262,290 Active 548 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,290 Active 547 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,290 Active 543 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,290 Active 542 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,290 Active 541 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,290 Active 540 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,217
• − Property taxes: −$4,610
• − Insurance: −$1,537
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,731
• − Management: −$2,731
• − Depreciation: −$8,941
• Taxable loss: −$3,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $2,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B