4453 Athlone Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1908 4,168 sqft lot $36/sqft · 20% below area Est $69k · 20% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three-bedroom, one-bathroom, two-story all-brick property full of character and renovation potential, ideal for investors or buyers seeking a standout restoration project. This home features a beautiful hardwood staircase, original built-in bookshelves, and pocket doors on the main level that highlight its timeless charm. Strong architectural details and solid construction provide an excellent foundation for renovation and added value.

Key facts

• Solid construction
• Pocket doors
• Hardwood staircase

Tags

• HARDWOOD STAIRCASE
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• POCKET DOORS
• ARCHITECTURAL DETAILS
• SOLID CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.69%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,858
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -20.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4253 Holly Ave	0.20mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,468 (-4%)	7mo	$32,800	$22	74
4454 Holly Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,716 (+13%)	4mo	$79,900	$47	73
4526 Alice Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,472 (-3%)	11mo	$85,000	$58	68
4261 Red Bud Ave	0.15mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,734 (+14%)	2mo	$89,900	$52	63
4111 E Lee Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,550 (+2%)	15mo	$70,000	$45	63
4419 Holly Ave	0.12mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,700 (+12%)	7mo	$65,000	$38	62
2131 E De Soto Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,496 (-2%)	12mo	$59,900	$40	55
4202 E Carter Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-15%)	15mo	$75,000	$58	55
4166 Farlin Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,684 (+11%)	6mo	$15,000	$9	52
4545 Alice Ave Ave	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,681 (+10%)	10mo	$38,000	$23	50
4470 Dryden Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-13%)	8mo	$21,500	$16	48
4038 N Newstead Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-8%)	19mo	$50,000	$36	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $24,337
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $63,983
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $348/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $431

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	43d	1	0.23mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	43d	1	0.80mi
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	23d	1	0.84mi
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.92mi
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	43d	1	0.95mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	4d	1	1.21mi
2207 Angelica St Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1734	$1,350	$0.78	43d	1	1.30mi
5338 Claxton Ave Unit 33 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,550	$1.30	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-03-31
   listed $60,000 Active 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Three-bedroom, one-bathroom, two-story all-brick property full of character and renovation potential, ideal for investors or buyers seeking a standout restoration project. This home features a beautiful hardwood staircase, original built-in bookshelves, and pocket doors on the main level that highlight its timeless charm. Strong architectural details and solid construction provide an excellent foundation for renovation and added value.

7. 2025-08-08
   status Pending
8. 2025-07-09
   price $54,000
9. 2025-06-23
   status Active
10. 2025-05-19
    status Pending
11. 2025-04-03
    listed $60,000 Active
12. 2025-02-26
    historical
13. 2025-01-30
    listed $70,000 Active
14. 2024-09-14
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $348 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$15/mo · 53.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$348
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,048
• − Management: −$1,048
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $4,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-39.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $54,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Listed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-26 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-30 Listed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-14 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $348 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.