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40526 Berylline Ln
C- Composite 52.54
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Appreciation +10.0/10.0
  • Cash flow +7.6/30.0
  • Schools +4.7/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • DSCR +1.7/10.0

$249,900

40526 Berylline Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 4,599 sqft lot 2-car garage $153/sqft · 20% below area Est $312k · 20% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, Pocket Office, Fireplace, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Dual Vanities in Owner’s Bath, Luxury Vinyl Plank Floors in Dining, Kitchen, Family Room and All Wet Areas, Granite Kitchen Counter-tops with Island, Tile Back-splash, Under-mount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, 42” Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Upgraded Lighting & Trim Packages, Extended Covered Patio, Full Gutters, Full Sod and Irrigation, Stone Accented Elevation, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, Environments for Living Home, plus more…AVAILABLE JUNE/JULY.

Key facts

  • 4,599 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (21.5% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $196k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
  • Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 2166 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
  • Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
  • 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $196,113 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.86%
Cap rate
4.83%
Cash-on-cash
-5.22%
DSCR
0.77
GRM
9.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$311,664
List price
$249,900
Delta
-18.18%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
40527 Goldeneye Pl 0.04mi 3/2.0 1,725 (+6%) 2mo $270,000 $157 87
15423 Bell's Vireo Ct 0.22mi 3/2.0 1,730 (+6%) 1mo $299,000 $173 79
40511 Tyto Ln 0.16mi 3/2.0 1,492 (-8%) 3mo $235,000 $158 76
40738 Barley Straw Dr 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,655 (+2%) 1mo $229,990 $139 72
40723 Barley Straw Dr 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,655 (+2%) 2mo $249,990 $151 71
15419 Park Perch Pl 0.73mi 3/2.0 1,614 (-1%) 3mo $299,900 $186 62
40659 Balsam Run Dr 0.43mi 3/2.0 1,434 (-12%) 3mo $239,000 $167 58
40759 Barley Straw Dr 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,796 (+10%) 2mo $293,490 $163 56
40718 Barley Straw Dr 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,796 (+10%) 2mo $294,890 $164 56
40735 Barley Straw Dr 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,796 (+10%) 2mo $279,990 $156 56
15423 Park Perch Pl 0.74mi 3/2.0 1,464 (-10%) 3mo $274,900 $188 46
15103 Bank Swallow Pl 0.75mi 3/2.0 1,826 (+12%) 1mo $299,990 $164 44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
19.7%
Equity multiple
2.59×
Total profit
$111,264
Equity at exit
$225,130
10-year hold
IRR
17.5%
Equity multiple
5.76×
Total profit
$333,055
Equity at exit
$485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
45 active · 20 under contract
Months of supply
9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$277,490 ($167/sqft)
Median days on market
56 d
This list price
18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+14.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

Home prices YoY
2.4%
Rents YoY
0.3%
Active inventory
2166
Price-to-rent
9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,151 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,311
Tax from tax record
$435 /mo · $5,218/yr
Insurance
$104
HOA
$154
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$452
Net cashflow
$-304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536
Max offer price $196,113
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-163 -5% $-234 +0% $-304 +5% $-375 +10% $-446
Rent -10% $-474 -5% $-389 +0% $-304 +5% $-220 +10% $-135
Rate -1.0pp $-179 -0.5pp $-241 base $-304 +0.5pp $-369 +1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$62,475
Closing costs
$7,497
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX 4.0 2.0 1753 $2,300 $1.31 139d 1 0.02mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1499 $2,150 $1.43 120d 1 0.05mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1605 $2,000 $1.25 44d 1 0.06mi
40322 Bay Warbler Way Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1605 $2,000 $1.25 37d 1 0.06mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1104 $2,901 $2.63 0d 40 0.19mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX 4.0 3.0 1942 $2,700 $1.39 18d 1 0.47mi
40402 Red Poppy Ln Magnolia, TX 4.0 2.0 1900 $2,295 $1.21 10d 1 0.59mi
14703 Night Violet Ct Magnolia, TX 4.0 2.0 1748 $1,951 $1.12 11d 1 0.64mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX 4.0 3.0 2170 $2,200 $1.01 94d 1 0.80mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX 4.0 3.0 2173 $2,375 $1.09 139d 1 0.98mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1575 $1,975 $1.25 67d 1 1.03mi
40618 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1573 $2,300 $1.46 18d 1 1.21mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX 4.0 2.0 1700 $2,200 $1.29 50d 1 1.21mi
40830 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,950 $1.52 39d 1 1.26mi
40650 Balsam Run Ln Magnolia, TX 4.0 2.0 2000 $2,200 $1.10 20d 1 1.28mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1156 $2,100 $1.82 139d 1 1.28mi
475 Audubons Shearwater Way Magnolia, TX 4.0 3.0 2049 $2,700 $1.32 59d 1 1.31mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1470 $2,000 $1.36 120d 1 1.43mi
913 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX 3.0 2.0 1186 $1,750 $1.48 11d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Community features include a community pool, curbs, and gutters
Financial info
Lease not considered
HOA & community
Homeowners association (Lead Association Mgmt) with annual fee of $1,800Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, and trailsAssociation fee covers clubhouse, grounds maintenance, and recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationBuilt in 2021Composition roof (shingles)Builder: Devon Street Homes
Construction
Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior
Exterior features
Covered patioCovered porchPorch and patioDeckFully fenced backyardBackyard fencingSprinkler/irrigation systemGreenbelt lot featureConcrete road access

Interior

Kitchen
Granite countertopsKitchen islandPantryGas oven and gas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on the main level (16x14)Bedroom on the main level (13x10)Bedroom on the main level (11x10)Office on the main level (6x5)
Flooring
CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in bathroom(s)
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features
All bedrooms on the main levelBreakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboPantryTub with showerKitchen and dining comboLow emissivity windowsInsulated doorsGas and wood-burning fireplace (one)
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer includedWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 1 DOM
  2. 2026-09-11
    days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
  3. 2026-09-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 8 DOM
  4. 2026-09-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 7 DOM
  5. 2026-09-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
  6. 2026-08-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 3 DOM
  7. 2026-08-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 2 DOM
  8. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on marketlisting id $255,000 Active 1 DOM
  9. 2026-08-28
    days on market $259,900 Active 157 DOM
  10. 2026-08-27
    days on market $259,900 Active 156 DOM
  11. 2026-08-25
    days on market $259,900 Active 154 DOM
  12. 2026-08-24
    days on market $259,900 Active 153 DOM
  13. 2026-08-23
    days on market $259,900 Active 152 DOM
  14. 2026-08-22
    days on market $259,900 Active 151 DOM
  15. 2026-08-21
    days on market $259,900 Active 150 DOM
  16. 2026-08-20
    days on market $259,900 Active 149 DOM
  17. 2026-08-19
    days on market $259,900 Active 148 DOM
  18. 2026-08-18
    days on market $259,900 Active 147 DOM
  19. 2026-08-17
    days on market $259,900 Active 146 DOM
  20. 2026-08-16
    days on market $259,900 Active 145 DOM
  21. 2026-08-15
    days on market $259,900 Active 144 DOM
  22. 2026-08-14
    days on market $259,900 Active 143 DOM
  23. 2026-08-13
    days on market $259,900 Active 142 DOM
  24. 2026-08-12
    days on market $259,900 Active 141 DOM
  25. 2026-08-11
    days on market $259,900 Active 140 DOM
  26. 2026-08-10
    days on market $259,900 Active 139 DOM
  27. 2026-08-09
    days on market $259,900 Active 138 DOM
  28. 2026-08-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 137 DOM
  29. 2026-08-06
    days on market $259,900 Active 135 DOM
  30. 2026-08-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 134 DOM
  31. 2026-08-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 133 DOM
  32. 2026-08-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 132 DOM
  33. 2026-07-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 129 DOM
  34. 2026-07-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 127 DOM
  35. 2026-07-28
    days on market $259,900 Active 126 DOM
  36. 2026-07-26
    days on market $259,900 Active 124 DOM
  37. 2026-07-24
    days on market $259,900 Active 122 DOM
  38. 2026-07-23
    days on market $259,900 Active 121 DOM
  39. 2026-07-23
    price $259,900 Active 120 DOM
  40. 2026-07-22
    days on market $264,900 Active 120 DOM
  41. 2026-07-21
    days on market $264,900 Active 119 DOM
  42. 2026-07-20
    days on market $264,900 Active 118 DOM
  43. 2026-07-18
    days on market $264,900 Active 116 DOM
  44. 2026-07-18
    days on market $264,900 Active 115 DOM
  45. 2026-07-16
    days on market $264,900 Active 114 DOM
  46. 2026-07-15
    days on market $264,900 Active 113 DOM
  47. 2026-07-14
    days on market $264,900 Active 112 DOM
  48. 2026-07-13
    days on market $264,900 Active 111 DOM
  49. 2026-07-11
    days on market $264,900 Active 109 DOM
  50. 2026-07-10
    days on market $264,900 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$5,218 · $435/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$5,218 · $435/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$25,807
− Mortgage interest
−$13,998
− Property taxes
−$5,218
− Insurance
−$1,250
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,065
− Management
−$2,065
− HOA
−$1,848
− Depreciation
−$7,270
Taxable loss
−$7,905
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,897
After-tax cash flow
$-1,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,155–$24,465 screening

This well-maintained home offers a good condition with good potential for value increase through minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
  • Both update flooring — hardwood floors are dated and could be replaced with more modern options

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Magnolia ISD
NCES district ID
4828740
Math proficiency
42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency
45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$71,692
Composite
39.46/100
National rank
#3958
State rank
#247 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

Score
73/100
State rank
#222
US rank
#5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population
32,847
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
44,900
Household income
$112,504
Rent vs Own
20.1% rent · 79.9% own
Severe rent burden
7% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
713,896 people
By 2030
805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040
992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050
1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075
1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100
1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (66%)
Race & ethnicity
White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born
11% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin
Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing
+7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-4.5% since first listed
10 events — show timeline
  • 2026-08-28 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-08-28 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-23 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
  • 2026-06-22 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-11 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
  • 2026-03-24 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
  • 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2021-04-21 Pending HARMLS
  • 2021-01-22 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
  • 2021-01-21 Listed $266,959 HARMLS

Property tax history

+76.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,218 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…