8816 Gibson Rd · Molino, FL 32577

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1977 0.46 ac lot $174/sqft · 12% above area Est $178k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED FOR A QUICK SALE! Completely updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on nearly half an acre with two sheds in a peaceful country setting! This move-in ready property features brand-new flooring, fresh interior paint, and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Major upgrades include a new air conditioning system, upgraded electrical, new appliances, water heater, attic insulation, and energy-efficient windows. You’ll also find new lighting and ceiling fans throughout, a remodeled front porch, a freshly stained back porch, and partial new fencing in the yard. Extra windows have been thoughtfully added throughout the home, filling the space with natural light and creating a bright, airy feel. The primary bedroom features a stunning oversized window that perfectly frames the surrounding greenery, bringing the beauty of the countryside right into your room. Enjoy the space, updates, and quiet surroundings—ready for you to move in whenever you are!

Key facts

• Upgraded electrical
• Water heater
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL
• NEW APPLIANCES
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.5% in Molino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#224 in FL, #3,540 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 11694% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $200k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.31%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,207
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 12.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,829
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $31,062
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32577

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $806/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,517

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    listed $1,695
16. 2026-05-13
    status Active 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    REDUCED FOR A QUICK SALE! Completely updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on nearly half an acre with two sheds in a peaceful country setting! This move-in ready property features brand-new flooring, fresh interior paint, and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Major upgrades include a new air conditioning system, upgraded electrical, new appliances, water heater, attic insulation, and energy-efficient windows. You’ll also find new lighting and ceiling fans throughout, a remodeled front porch, a freshly stained back porch, and partial new fencing in the yard. Extra windows have been thoughtfully added throughout the home, filling the space with natural light and creating a bright, airy feel. The primary bedroom features a stunning oversized window that perfectly frames the surrounding greenery, bringing the beauty of the countryside right into your room. Enjoy the space, updates, and quiet surroundings—ready for you to move in whenever you are!

17. 2026-05-13
    price $199,900 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    REDUCED FOR A QUICK SALE! Completely updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on nearly half an acre with two sheds in a peaceful country setting! This move-in ready property features brand-new flooring, fresh interior paint, and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Major upgrades include a new air conditioning system, upgraded electrical, new appliances, water heater, attic insulation, and energy-efficient windows. You’ll also find new lighting and ceiling fans throughout, a remodeled front porch, a freshly stained back porch, and partial new fencing in the yard. Extra windows have been thoughtfully added throughout the home, filling the space with natural light and creating a bright, airy feel. The primary bedroom features a stunning oversized window that perfectly frames the surrounding greenery, bringing the beauty of the countryside right into your room. Enjoy the space, updates, and quiet surroundings—ready for you to move in whenever you are!

18. 2026-05-05
    historical Contingent 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    REDUCED FOR A QUICK SALE! Completely updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on nearly half an acre with two sheds in a peaceful country setting! This move-in ready property features brand-new flooring, fresh interior paint, and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Major upgrades include a new air conditioning system, upgraded electrical, new appliances, water heater, attic insulation, and energy-efficient windows. You’ll also find new lighting and ceiling fans throughout, a remodeled front porch, a freshly stained back porch, and partial new fencing in the yard. Extra windows have been thoughtfully added throughout the home, filling the space with natural light and creating a bright, airy feel. The primary bedroom features a stunning oversized window that perfectly frames the surrounding greenery, bringing the beauty of the countryside right into your room. Enjoy the space, updates, and quiet surroundings—ready for you to move in whenever you are!

19. 2026-04-27
    price $219,900 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    REDUCED FOR A QUICK SALE! Completely updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on nearly half an acre with two sheds in a peaceful country setting! This move-in ready property features brand-new flooring, fresh interior paint, and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Major upgrades include a new air conditioning system, upgraded electrical, new appliances, water heater, attic insulation, and energy-efficient windows. You’ll also find new lighting and ceiling fans throughout, a remodeled front porch, a freshly stained back porch, and partial new fencing in the yard. Extra windows have been thoughtfully added throughout the home, filling the space with natural light and creating a bright, airy feel. The primary bedroom features a stunning oversized window that perfectly frames the surrounding greenery, bringing the beauty of the countryside right into your room. Enjoy the space, updates, and quiet surroundings—ready for you to move in whenever you are!

20. 2026-04-22
    listed $239,900 Active 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    REDUCED FOR A QUICK SALE! Completely updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on nearly half an acre with two sheds in a peaceful country setting! This move-in ready property features brand-new flooring, fresh interior paint, and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Major upgrades include a new air conditioning system, upgraded electrical, new appliances, water heater, attic insulation, and energy-efficient windows. You’ll also find new lighting and ceiling fans throughout, a remodeled front porch, a freshly stained back porch, and partial new fencing in the yard. Extra windows have been thoughtfully added throughout the home, filling the space with natural light and creating a bright, airy feel. The primary bedroom features a stunning oversized window that perfectly frames the surrounding greenery, bringing the beauty of the countryside right into your room. Enjoy the space, updates, and quiet surroundings—ready for you to move in whenever you are!

21. 2024-02-22
    soldstatus $75,000
22. 2024-02-20
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

23. 2023-11-16
    historical Contingent 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

24. 2023-11-15
    status Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

25. 2023-10-03
    historical Contingent 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

26. 2023-09-29
    status Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

27. 2023-09-29
    historical 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

28. 2023-09-27
    status Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

29. 2023-09-23
    historical Contingent 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

30. 2023-09-22
    listed $80,000 Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Nestled in the serene and picturesque community of Molino, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exciting investment opportunity for those with a vision. With 1,152 square feet of living space and a generous lot spanning nearly half an acre, this property presents endless possibilities for customization and renovation. While some upgrades have already been completed, there's still room for your creative touch and a little tender loving care (TLC) to transform this home into your masterpiece. The interior features a well-thought-out layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample space for comfortable living. Situated just 40 minutes from downtown Pensacola, Pensacola Beach is a mere 50-minute drive away, Don't miss out on the chance to create something special in this beautiful location. Schedule a viewing today and envision the possibilities that await!

31. 2018-03-19
    soldstatus $22,000
32. 2017-11-18
    listed $24,700
33. 2017-10-11
    soldstatus $25,000
34. 2017-08-02
    listed $32,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$853/yr (+$71/mo · 105.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$806
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$484
• After-tax cash flow: $4,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Molino

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #3540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,881

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.32%
• Current HPI: 323.2275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed for Rent $1,695 PARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $199,900 PARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $219,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $239,900 PARMLS
• 2024-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-20 Sold (MLS) $75,000 PARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-10-03 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-09-27 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed $80,000 PARMLS
• 2018-03-19 Sold (MLS) $22,000 PARMLS
• 2017-11-18 Listed $24,700 PARMLS
• 2017-10-11 Sold (MLS) $25,000 PARMLS
• 2017-08-02 Listed $32,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $806 · +48.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.