22472 Blazing Star Run · Connerton, FL 34637

$452,690

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $146/sqft · at area comps Est $453k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One of the largest plans in this collection, this two-story home has an abundance of space with six bedrooms to offer restful retreats for the whole family. Off the foyer is a versatile flex space, followed by a modern free-flowing design to add a sense of unity amid the open kitchen, dining room and family room. The second floor is host to the sprawling owner's suite and a large loft for shared entertainment.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $453k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($151/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $398k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $397,599 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,935
• List price: $452,690
• Delta: -0.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22413 Nebula Way	0.07mi	6/3.0	3,092 (0%)	10mo	$488,690	$158	88
22361 Blazing Star Run	0.10mi	6/3.0	3,326 (+8%)	3mo	$464,900	$140	80
22540 Nebula Way	0.07mi	6/4.0	3,326 (+8%)	6mo	$463,590	$139	75
22169 Calisto Way	0.30mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-6%)	3mo	$464,900	$161	65
22167 Tucana Way	0.33mi	6/3.0	3,326 (+8%)	9mo	$499,990	$150	65
22083 Blazing Star Run	0.37mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-6%)	2mo	$445,000	$154	64
7776 Painted Sky Pl	0.35mi	6/3.0	3,326 (+8%)	13mo	$488,390	$147	61
7771 Painted Sky Pl	0.33mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,531 (+14%)	1mo	$794,430	$225	55
7961 Painted Sky Pl	0.45mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-6%)	12mo	$469,900	$162	51
21896 Emory Oak Pl	0.62mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,545 (+15%)	3mo	$850,000	$240	35
8776 Birchleaf Ct	0.65mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,548 (+15%)	2mo	$855,000	$241	34
21797 Briske Morning Ave	0.70mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,547 (+15%)	1mo	$610,000	$172	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-44,112
• Equity at exit: $97,690

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-11,213
• Equity at exit: $93,008

Cash invested: $126,753 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $524,490 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 51 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$566 /mo · $6,790/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$835
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,960

Max offer price $452,690

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $169	+0% $13	+5% $-144	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-144	+0% $13	+5% $170	+10% $327
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $128	base $13	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,172
• Closing costs: $13,581
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22164 Calisto Way Land O Lakes, FL	6.0	3.0	3092	$3,500	$1.13	32d	1	0.31mi
21648 Southern Charm Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2560	$3,000	$1.17	40d	1	0.77mi
21286 Wistful Yearn Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	2492	$3,600	$1.44	7d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $452,690 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $452,690 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $452,690 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $452,690 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $452,690 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $452,690 Active 53 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,358
• − Property taxes: −$6,790
• − Insurance: −$2,263
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,817
• − Management: −$3,817
• − Depreciation: −$13,169
• Taxable loss: −$7,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $1,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a spacious layout. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrade flooring in high-traffic areas — Upgrading worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

---

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B