8300 Kern Canyon Rd #47 · East Niles, CA 93306

$43,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1970 $64/sqft · 22% above area Est $35k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Easy freeway access

Tags

• TERRACE GARDEN ESTATES
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association clubhouse/recreation; Association pool; Association has pet rules (call for info)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (MH zoning); Owner-occupied
• Construction: Other (see remarks) roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Leased space; Located in Orangewood Estates neighborhood; Cross street: Kern Canyon and Morning Dr; Directions: Please use GPS

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Formal living room; Range/Oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.6% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,710 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.40%
• DSCR: 5.82
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $35,369
• List price: $43,000
• Delta: 21.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $61,010
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.39×
• Total profit: $137,096
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $283/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $1,088

Break-even live

Break-even rent $338

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,112	-5% $1,100	+0% $1,088	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,063
Rent	-10% $952	-5% $1,020	+0% $1,088	+5% $1,155	+10% $1,223
Rate	-1.0pp $1,109	-0.5pp $1,099	base $1,088	+0.5pp $1,076	+1.0pp $1,065

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6106 Auburn St Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	897	$1,770	$1.97	3d	34	1.48mi
6001 Auburn St Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	699	$1,599	$2.29	3d	5	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $43,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,999 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,999 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,999 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,999 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,999 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,999 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,999 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,999 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,999 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,999 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,999 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,999 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,999 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,999 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $44,999 Active 270-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $283 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $327 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$43/yr (+$4/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$283
• − Insurance: −$215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $13,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,150
• After-tax cash flow: $9,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $44,999 GEMLS

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $283 · +1333.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.