15342 Forest Ranch Way · Forest Ranch, CA 95942

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1974 0.48 ac lot $136/sqft · 48% below area Est $348k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover a unique opportunity at 15342 Forest Ranch Way. This 1,320 sq. ft. two-story structure features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and sits on nearly half an acre. The interior includes a fireplace, cabinets, and a range, alongside a central heating and cooling system and water heater. Located in the scenic foothills of Butte County, the property offers a private, treed setting. This is an ideal project for those looking to invest in a space with significant potential and customize a mountain retreat to their exact specifications.

Key facts

• Mountain retreat
• Two story structure
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• TWO STORY STRUCTURE
• PRIVATE TREED SETTING
• MOUNTAIN RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#574 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,454 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,478
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -48.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4709 Hartley Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+4%)	12mo	$305,000	$221	75
4722 Heidi Way	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (+8%)	9mo	$300,000	$209	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,389
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,536
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95942

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 106.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$289
• After-tax cash flow: $2,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608370
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 46.45/100
• National rank: #2443
• State rank: #117 of 517 in CA

Livability — Forest Ranch

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #18768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Ranch, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,190

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.81%
• Current HPI: 236.6388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.