20926 E Stagecoach Trl · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 564 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1974 8,802 sqft lot Est $172k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Top-of-the-hill property with stunning views! This home features an added bedroom plus a versatile office/den. Enjoy beautifully landscaped grounds with mature trees, extra parking, and a powered workshop with additional storage. Tucked away in a private, park-like setting on a quiet dead-end street, yet conveniently close to state land for outdoor recreation. Ideal as a peaceful getaway or second home--this is a must-see!

Key facts

• Added bedroom
• Extra parking
• Landscaped grounds

Tags

• ADDED BEDROOM
• VERSATILE OFFICE
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• MATURE TREES
• EXTRA PARKING
• POWERED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Propane service; Private water company; Septic (in and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Rolled/Hot Mop roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert front and back; County-maintained road access; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $130k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,020
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20864 E Mesa Verde Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	632 (+12%)	22mo	$193,000	$305	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $96,827
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $264,742
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $453	+0% $408	+5% $363	+10% $318
Rent	-10% $278	-5% $343	+0% $408	+5% $474	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $441	base $408	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $130,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-04-28
   listed $130,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Top-of-the-hill property with stunning views! This home features an added bedroom plus a versatile office/den. Enjoy beautifully landscaped grounds with mature trees, extra parking, and a powered workshop with additional storage. Tucked away in a private, park-like setting on a quiet dead-end street, yet conveniently close to state land for outdoor recreation. Ideal as a peaceful getaway or second home--this is a must-see!

10. 2026-04-28
    listed $130,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Top-of-the-hill property with stunning views! This home features an added bedroom plus a versatile office/den. Enjoy beautifully landscaped grounds with mature trees, extra parking, and a powered workshop with additional storage. Tucked away in a private, park-like setting on a quiet dead-end street, yet conveniently close to state land for outdoor recreation. Ideal as a peaceful getaway or second home--this is a must-see!

11. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus $80,000
12. 2007-11-01
    soldstatus $60,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    `TOP OF THE HILL VIEWS` VERY WELL CARED FOR HOME. ADD-ON OF A BEDROOM PLUS OFFICE/DEN. NICELY LANDSCAPED, MATURE TREES, EXTRA PARKING,NICE WORKSHOP WITH POWER PLUS STORAGE. PRIVATE PARK-LIKE SETING ON DEADEND STREET. CLOSE TO STATE LAND. A GREAT GET-AWAY SECOND HOME. MUST SEE!

13. 2007-11-01
    soldstatus $56,500

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    `TOP OF THE HILL VIEWS` VERY WELL CARED FOR HOME. ADD-ON OF A BEDROOM PLUS OFFICE/DEN. NICELY LANDSCAPED, MATURE TREES, EXTRA PARKING,NICE WORKSHOP WITH POWER PLUS STORAGE. PRIVATE PARK-LIKE SETING ON DEADEND STREET. CLOSE TO STATE LAND. A GREAT GET-AWAY SECOND HOME. MUST SEE!

14. 2007-11-01
    soldstatus $56,500

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    `TOP OF THE HILL VIEWS` VERY WELL CARED FOR HOME. ADD-ON OF A BEDROOM PLUS OFFICE/DEN. NICELY LANDSCAPED, MATURE TREES, EXTRA PARKING,NICE WORKSHOP WITH POWER PLUS STORAGE. PRIVATE PARK-LIKE SETING ON DEADEND STREET. CLOSE TO STATE LAND. A GREAT GET-AWAY SECOND HOME. MUST SEE!

15. 1996-02-06
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$722
• After-tax cash flow: $4,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+348.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $130,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 2007-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 2007-11-01 Sold (MLS) $60,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $256 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.