14291 Rios Canyon Rd #14 · Harbison Canyon, CA 92021

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 1971 6.66 ac lot Est $111k · 21% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

Key facts

• 6.66 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.3% in Harbison Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,111 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 12% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.47%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14291 Rios Canyon Rd #2	0.00mi	2/1.0	864 (+8%)	12mo	$120,000	$139	73
14291 Rios Cyn #47	0.00mi	2/2.0	880 (+10%)	14mo	$159,000	$181	72
13792 Hwy 8 Business #25	0.64mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	16mo	$80,000	$111	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,925
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $57,138
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2025-06-26
   status Pending
2. 2023-09-06
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

3. 2023-07-28
   status Pending
4. 2023-07-03
   status Pending 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

5. 2023-06-23
   price $135,000
6. 2023-06-21
   price $135,000 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

7. 2023-06-02
   status Active 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

8. 2023-05-24
   status Pending 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

9. 2023-04-19
   price $150,000 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

10. 2023-04-19
    status Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

11. 2022-10-19
    historical 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

12. 2022-10-18
    status Active
13. 2022-10-18
    historical
14. 2022-10-15
    price $125,000 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

15. 2022-10-15
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

16. 2022-10-15
    price $125,000

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

17. 2022-10-15
    status Pending 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

18. 2022-10-06
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

19. 2022-10-06
    listed $120,000 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

20. 2022-10-06
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Be welcomed by this fully upgraded mobile home less then 30 minutes from San Diego. You'll be greeted by natural & recessed lighting with all new flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, an oversized island with beautiful marble countertops & black appliances. Step into the relaxing master bedroom with recessed lighting. The bathrooms include all updated vanities with a standing shower in one and a shower/ tub combo in the other. You also have washer/ dryer hook ups inside. This amazing park has everything you might need including; a community pool, carports, and recreation area. Less then an hour from the beach!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $7,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,812
• After-tax cash flow: $7,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Harbison Canyon

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1111
• US rank: #25583

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-26 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-09-06 Sold (MLS) $130,000 AVMLS
• 2023-07-28 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-07-03 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-06-23 Price Changed $135,000 SDMLS
• 2023-06-21 Price Changed $135,000 AVMLS
• 2023-06-02 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2023-05-24 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-04-19 Price Changed $150,000 AVMLS
• 2023-04-19 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2022-10-19 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2022-10-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-10-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-10-15 Price Changed $125,000 AVMLS
• 2022-10-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-10-15 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2022-10-15 Pending — AVMLS
• 2022-10-06 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2022-10-06 Listed $120,000 AVMLS
• 2022-10-06 Listed $150,000 SDMLS