48 E Pine St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$119,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1930 3,825 sqft lot Est $162k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable home with an excellent lakeside Location This welcoming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom house offers 1,640 square feet of living space and makes a great starter home or investment opportunity. Located just one block from Lake Erie, the property is within easy walking distance to Wright Park, the boardwalk, the marina, and all the waterfront amenities that define this desirable neighborhood. The home features durable vinyl siding, vinyl windows, and a well-maintained gutter system. Outside, you'll enjoy a fully fenced yard for privacy and a large rear patio that's perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing evenings, and maybe even a hastle free 4th of July fireworks show. Inside, the con

Key facts

• Lakeside location
• First-floor bedroom
• Fenced yard

Tags

• LAKESIDE LOCATION
• FENCED YARD
• LARGE REAR PATIO
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity (1-car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Patio; Fully fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Country kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Has basement (full and crawl space)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $120k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.32%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,360
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 N Beagle St	0.16mi	4/1.0	1,731 (+6%)	6mo	$37,500	$22	78
79 N Ocelot St	0.29mi	4/1.5	1,678 (+2%)	4mo	$270,000	$161	77
13 N Gazelle St	0.25mi	4/1.0	1,601 (-2%)	14mo	$56,000	$35	73
309 Lake Shore Dr E	0.27mi	4/1.5	1,593 (-3%)	23mo	$125,000	$78	61
140 S Martin St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,468 (-10%)	2mo	$135,000	$92	58
125 Stegelske Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,540 (-6%)	10mo	$163,000	$106	43
81 Otter St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,716 (+5%)	16mo	$215,000	$125	40
14 Ounce St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	23mo	$142,000	$99	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $36,657
• Equity at exit: $67,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $102,874
• Equity at exit: $115,982

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,581/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $119,900 Pending 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-02
    listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,581
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $1,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+241.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $119,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $35,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,581 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.