16924 W Fetlok Trl · Surprise, AZ 85387

$423,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,237 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2023 6,621 sqft lot $131/sqft · 20% below area Est $526k · 20% under $78/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in a very heart of the neighborhood with lots of privacy and space for entertainment. North facing backyard ideal for the escape from the afternoon heat and sliding glass doors create an inviting ambiance and connection with Great outdoors. It features a 3-car tandem garage with 8' header, downstairs bedroom & bathroom, gourmet kitchen with large pantry located right off the garage. Stop and Drop offers landing space for amazon packages and grocery deliveries, semi enclosed study is great for game nights, gatherings with your friends and holiday celebrations. Included features: 4'' baseboards, 2 panel doors, wireless access point, home automation, tankless water heater, whole house air purification system and so much more.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Home automation
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GAS COOKTOP
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• HOME AUTOMATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $78 covering grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Security:
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Stucco and wood frame construction; Block fencing; Tile roof; Desert front yard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Double vanity; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Dual-pane windows; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $423k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-506 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Oasis Elementary School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #434 of 1,109 statewide, top 39%, 572 students, 38% FRL); Mountainside High School (223 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1316 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,716 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $525,623
• List price: $423,000
• Delta: -19.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27240 N 170th Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,018 (-7%)	3mo	$499,990	$166	72
26971 N 169th Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,018 (-7%)	6mo	$499,990	$166	69
17139 W Bent Tree Dr	0.31mi	5/4.0	2,885 (-11%)	2mo	$497,500	$172	62
27834 N 172nd Ave	0.51mi	5/3.0	2,938 (-9%)	1mo	$453,990	$155	60
16780 W Cavedale Dr	0.36mi	5/3.5	2,865 (-12%)	3mo	$489,990	$171	60
16820 W Cavedale Dr	0.33mi	5/3.5	2,865 (-12%)	5mo	$459,990	$161	59
16805 W Cavedale Dr	0.37mi	5/3.5	2,865 (-12%)	3mo	$489,990	$171	58
17187 W Blue Sky Dr	0.50mi	5/3.5	2,938 (-9%)	3mo	$449,990	$153	57
17182 W Oberlin Way	0.48mi	5/2.5	2,938 (-9%)	4mo	$439,990	$150	57
17328 W Bajada Rd	0.54mi	5/3.0	3,579 (+11%)	1mo	$543,000	$152	56
17194 W Blue Sky Dr	0.52mi	5/3.5	2,938 (-9%)	4mo	$458,990	$156	55
16510 W Tether Trl	0.72mi	5/3.5	2,953 (-9%)	3mo	$499,000	$169	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-106,313
• Equity at exit: $63,071

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-155,915
• Equity at exit: $36,573

Cash invested: $118,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85387

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1316
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,218
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,687/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,308

Max offer price $333,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-267	-5% $-386	+0% $-506	+5% $-626	+10% $-745
Rent	-10% $-717	-5% $-611	+0% $-506	+5% $-401	+10% $-295
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-398	base $-506	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-727

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,750
• Closing costs: $12,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16731 W Cavedale Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2116	$2,199	$1.04	44d	1	0.42mi
27297 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2610	$2,399	$0.92	2d	1	0.43mi
17182 W Oberlin Way Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.5	2938	$2,750	$0.94	22d	1	0.46mi
26462 N 165th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2437	$2,250	$0.92	44d	1	0.66mi
27878 N 175th Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	4.0	3309	$2,950	$0.89	2d	1	0.80mi
17698 W Maya Way Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2115	$1,850	$0.87	4d	1	0.98mi
25847 N 163rd Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2236	$2,066	$0.92	44d	1	1.07mi
25620 N 167th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2491	$2,400	$0.96	44d	1	1.08mi
25425 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2137	$2,250	$1.05	17d	1	1.12mi
25450 N 166th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2137	$2,150	$1.01	22d	1	1.19mi
25389 N 166th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2137	$2,200	$1.03	44d	1	1.24mi
25727 N 161st Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2270	$3,000	$1.32	2d	1	1.27mi
16067 W El Cortez Pl Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2342	$2,350	$1.00	4d	1	1.42mi
16047 W Honeysuckle Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2406	$2,495	$1.04	19d	1	1.44mi
24913 N 170th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2491	$2,300	$0.92	17d	1	1.44mi
16038 W El Cortez Pl Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2139	$1,990	$0.93	4d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $423,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $423,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $423,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $423,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $423,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $445,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    listed $445,000 Active 750-char remark
15. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus $573,681 Closed 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Beautiful home in a very heart of the neighborhood with lots of privacy and space for entertainment. North facing backyard ideal for the escape from the afternoon heat and sliding glass doors create an inviting ambiance and connection with Great outdoors. It features a 3-car tandem garage with 8' header, downstairs bedroom & bathroom, gourmet kitchen with large pantry located right off the garage. Stop and Drop offers landing space for amazon packages and grocery deliveries, semi enclosed study is great for game nights, gatherings with your friends and holiday celebrations. Included features: 4'' baseboards, 2 panel doors, wireless access point, home automation, tankless water heater, whole house air purification system and so much more.

16. 2023-07-17
    price $573,681 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Beautiful home in a very heart of the neighborhood with lots of privacy and space for entertainment. North facing backyard ideal for the escape from the afternoon heat and sliding glass doors create an inviting ambiance and connection with Great outdoors. It features a 3-car tandem garage with 8' header, downstairs bedroom & bathroom, gourmet kitchen with large pantry located right off the garage. Stop and Drop offers landing space for amazon packages and grocery deliveries, semi enclosed study is great for game nights, gatherings with your friends and holiday celebrations. Included features: 4'' baseboards, 2 panel doors, wireless access point, home automation, tankless water heater, whole house air purification system and so much more.

17. 2023-05-18
    listed $574,447 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Beautiful home in a very heart of the neighborhood with lots of privacy and space for entertainment. North facing backyard ideal for the escape from the afternoon heat and sliding glass doors create an inviting ambiance and connection with Great outdoors. It features a 3-car tandem garage with 8' header, downstairs bedroom & bathroom, gourmet kitchen with large pantry located right off the garage. Stop and Drop offers landing space for amazon packages and grocery deliveries, semi enclosed study is great for game nights, gatherings with your friends and holiday celebrations. Included features: 4'' baseboards, 2 panel doors, wireless access point, home automation, tankless water heater, whole house air purification system and so much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,687 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,792 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,105/yr (+$92/mo · 65.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,695
• − Property taxes: −$1,687
• − Insurance: −$2,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$12,305
• Taxable loss: −$13,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $98,757
• Rent vs Own: 5.0% rent · 95.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 123.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-26.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $423,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $445,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $573,681 ARMLS
• 2023-07-17 Price Changed $573,681 ARMLS
• 2023-05-18 Listed $574,447 ARMLS

Property tax history

+165.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,687 · -14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.