18803 Hogan Cir #14 · Point Venture, TX 78645

$225,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,156 sqft · Condo · 317 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $195/sqft · 45% below area Est $410k · 45% under · waterfront $230/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern Like-New Luxury Townhome on the Point Venture Golf Course! Enjoy low-maintenance lock-n-leave living in this stylish townhome, perfectly positioned along the fairway in the Point Venture community. Where every day is a holiday! Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend escape, or short-term rental opportunity, this home offers flexibility and comfort with a modern edge. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac with golf course access right outside your door, you're just moments away from the lake, the pool, various sports, all while surrounded by wildlife & views. This gorgeous two-story home features high end granite countertops, LVP flooring, XL bedrooms, and oversized closets—all designed with ease and function in mind. The sun kissed open floor plan offers a welcoming atmosphere complimented by picturesque views of the scenic golf course, which you can enjoy while relaxing on your covered back porch or upstairs balcony. The kitchen comes fully loaded with high end finishes including stainless appliances, white cabinetry, and bar seating. Convenient laundry area under the stairs! Upstairs one bedroom comes with a charming balcony, while both spacious bedrooms feature huge closets and share a dual vanity ensuite bath with tasteful luxury finishes. Enjoy a short stroll or golf cart ride to the lively Point Venture Golf Club while taking in breathtaking views of the lake. Residents enjoy access to Point Venture’s wealth of lakefront amenities, including a private 9-hole golf course, marina, resort-style pool, lakefront park, disc golf, pickleball & tennis, and so much more. Come experience today!

Key facts

• Upstairs balcony
• Lakefront amenities
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• GOLF COURSE ACCESS
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• UPSTAIRS BALCONY
• PRIVATE 9-HOLE GOLF COURSE
• LAKEFRONT AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in Point Venture — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#509 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1256 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,221 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,202
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -45.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-52,957
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-66,993
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1256
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,259

Max offer price $187,221

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-183	+0% $-261	+5% $-339	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-337	+0% $-261	+5% $-185	+10% $-109
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-204	base $-261	+0.5pp $-319	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,825	$1.47	93d	1	0.80mi
430 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,895	$1.49	47d	1	0.85mi
1 Madrone Estates CV Lakeway, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1117	$1,778	$1.59	9d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail $230/mo · $2,760/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $225,000 Active 315 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $225,000 Active 314 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 313 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $225,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $225,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $225,000 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $225,000 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $225,000 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $225,000 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    price $225,000 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $237,000 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $237,000 Active 299 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $237,000 Active 298 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $237,000 Active 296 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $237,000 Active 295 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $237,000 Active 294 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $237,000 Active 293 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $237,000 Active 292 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $237,000 Active 291 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $237,000 Active 290 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $237,000 Active 289 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $237,000 Active 288 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $237,000 Active 287 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $237,000 Active 285 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $237,000 Active 284 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $237,000 Active 283 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $237,000 Active 281 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $237,000 Active 280 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $237,000 Active 279 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $237,000 Active 278 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $237,000 Active 277 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $237,000 Active 276 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $237,000 Active 275 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $237,000 Active 274 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $237,000 Active 272 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $237,000 Active 270 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $237,000 Active 269 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $237,000 Active 266 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $237,000 Active 265 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $237,000 Active 264 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $237,000 Active 263 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $237,000 Active 261 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $237,000 Active 257 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $237,000 Active 256 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $237,000 Active 255 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,000 Active 252 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,000 Active 251 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,780–$17,340 screening

This modern townhome is in excellent condition with minimal updates needed to maximize its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features to the HVAC system — Smart home features can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value by making the property more attractive. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lago Vista El F TX #1,545/4,322 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Lago Vista Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Lago Vista H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Point Venture

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #10087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Venture, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $245,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $245,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $250,000 CTXMLS