1509 N Mitchell Dr · Payson, AZ 85541

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Land public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1977 7,405 sqft lot $300/sqft · 84% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great level lot with a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom single wide trailer in the heart of Payson, AZ. This affordable property offers ample room for your RV, toys and vehicles on this fully fenced corner lot.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 135 days

Tags

• FULLY FENCED CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,738
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 67.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,815
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,393
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $425/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-02-02
    listed $175,000 Active 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Great level lot with a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom single wide trailer in the heart of Payson, AZ. This affordable property offers ample room for your RV, toys and vehicles on this fully fenced corner lot.

18. 2026-01-29
    listed $175,000 Active 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Great level lot with a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom single wide trailer in the heart of Payson, AZ. This affordable property offers ample room for your RV, toys and vehicles on this fully fenced corner lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $425 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$565/yr (+$47/mo · 133.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$425
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $2,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $175,000 CAAR

Property tax history

-9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.