15820 Big Ridge Rd · St. Martin, MS 39532

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1968 0.32 ac lot $132/sqft · 9% above area Est $170k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offering a peaceful setting with the convenience of nearby city amenities. This property provides a sense of privacy while remaining close to shopping, dining, schools, and entertainment. The spacious lot allows for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion, making it ideal for those who value room to breathe. Whether you're looking for a comfortable primary residence, a retreat from the busyness of town, or an investment opportunity, this location combines tranquility with accessibility in the growing Biloxi area.

Key facts

• Future expansion
• Sense of privacy
• Spacious lot

Tags

• PEACEFUL SETTING
• SENSE OF PRIVACY
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• FUTURE EXPANSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.40%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,320
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 8.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15829 Belmont Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,378 (-2%)	1mo	$182,000	$132	88
15825 Waycross Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (-6%)	2mo	$186,500	$141	77
7108 Melrose Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,323 (-6%)	2mo	$160,000	$121	67
7137 Mandarin Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	3mo	$172,000	$137	67
15304 Big Ridge Rd	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,396 (-0%)	0mo	$149,000	$107	65
16301 Trenton Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+3%)	5mo	$194,900	$134	63
16205 Waycross Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-11%)	4mo	$175,000	$140	61
15316 Anderson Dr	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,377 (-2%)	8mo	$185,000	$134	54
16005 Hardwood Pl	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	1mo	$175,000	$146	48
7120 Bienville Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (+13%)	9mo	$219,000	$139	47
16019 Abilene St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-12%)	7mo	$148,000	$120	42
15417 Glen Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,578 (+13%)	6mo	$223,000	$141	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,750
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $17,262
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $897/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $372	+0% $319	+5% $267	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $247	+0% $319	+5% $391	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $366	base $319	+0.5pp $271	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15412 Big Ridge Rd Biloxi, MS	2.0	1.5	1020	$940	$0.92	44d	1	0.29mi
16016 Lemoyne Blvd Biloxi, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1126	$1,607	$1.43	14d	18	0.54mi
7001 Knollwood Dr Biloxi, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,325	$1.10	44d	1	0.57mi
16201 Cervantes Ct Biloxi, MS	4.0	2.0	1404	$1,975	$1.41	44d	1	0.57mi
11134 Gorenflo Rd Diberville, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	22d	1	0.59mi
11122 Gorenflo Rd Diberville, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	14d	1	0.60mi
8108 Laredo Ave Biloxi, MS	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	14d	1	0.80mi
112 E Orchard Loop D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,970	$1.98	44d	1	0.91mi
103 E Orchard Loop D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,970	$1.98	44d	1	0.91mi
107 E Orchard Loop D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,970	$1.98	44d	1	0.91mi
611 Peach St D'Iberville, MS	3.0	2.5	1589	$2,500	$1.57	44d	1	0.92mi
716 Plum Ln D'Iberville, MS	2.0	2.5	1600	$3,410	$2.13	44d	1	0.94mi
14801 Lemoyne Blvd Biloxi, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,550	$1.69	14d	20	1.10mi
14912 Mallett Rd Biloxi, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,780	$1.78	22d	32	1.15mi
14510 Lemoyne Blvd Biloxi, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,590	$1.41	14d	9	1.27mi
12088 Lamey Bridge Rd Diberville, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	14d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-01-06
   listed $185,000 Active 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Offering a peaceful setting with the convenience of nearby city amenities. This property provides a sense of privacy while remaining close to shopping, dining, schools, and entertainment. The spacious lot allows for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion, making it ideal for those who value room to breathe. Whether you're looking for a comfortable primary residence, a retreat from the busyness of town, or an investment opportunity, this location combines tranquility with accessibility in the growing Biloxi area.

2. 2025-11-17
   historical
3. 2025-10-15
   listed $167,900 Active
4. 2025-09-18
   status Pending
5. 2025-09-17
   historical
6. 2025-09-06
   price $169,000
7. 2025-08-31
   price $179,000
8. 2025-05-23
   listed $185,000 Active
9. 2022-12-04
   status Pending
10. 2022-11-30
    price $139,900
11. 2022-11-10
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$565/yr (+$47/mo · 63.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$897
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$197
• After-tax cash flow: $3,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — St. Martin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Martin, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 36,662
• Household income: $68,710
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 15% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 154.9975
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+23.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $185,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-10-15 Listed $167,900 MLSU
• 2025-09-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $169,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $179,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-23 Listed $185,000 MLSU
• 2022-12-04 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-11-30 Price Changed $139,900 MLSU
• 2022-11-10 Listed $149,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $897 · -31.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.