56 Todd Rd · Argyle, NY 12809

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2004 1.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * HIGHEST & BEST DUE BY MONDAY, JUNE 15TH BY 11 AM * * Welcome home to this well-maintained and recently reconditioned 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on 1.28 acres, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and country living. Recent updates provide peace of mind and include brand-new carpeting with new subflooring throughout the living room, hallway, and bedrooms, new vinyl flooring in the laundry room and primary bedroom, a new hot water tank, and new toilets. The functional floor plan offers comfortable living spaces, a spacious primary suite, and plenty of room to enjoy both inside and out. With over an acre of land, you'll have space for outdoor activities,

Key facts

• New carpeting
• New hot water tank
• Well maintained

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• RECENTLY RECONDITIONED
• NEW CARPETING
• NEW SUBFLOORING
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• NEW HOT WATER TANK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway; 4 total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Shed(s); Secluded, level, wooded and cleared lot with mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: High speed internet; Paddle fan; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($476/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,010 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Argyle Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #426 of 755 in NY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Argyle Junior/Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #912 of 1,100 statewide, top 85%, 229 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 26% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $73,418
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $214,403
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12809

• Home prices YoY: 20.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,358/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $130,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   remarks 695-char remark
4. 2026-06-14
   listed $130,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,358 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,358 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,358
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$385
• After-tax cash flow: $861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603210
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,893
• Composite: 46.17/100
• National rank: #5453
• State rank: #426 of 755 in NY

Livability — Argyle

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #19685

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,639

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Serbian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 63.17%
• Current HPI: 376.0979
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+44.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $130,000 Global MLS
• 2015-04-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-04-28 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2014-04-28 Listed $89,900 Global MLS
• 2014-04-28 Listed $89,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,358 · +22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.