126 Golf Course Ln · Welaka, FL 32112

$99,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1972 7,840 sqft lot Est $100k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

GOLF LOVERS LOOK !!! Enjoy living on the 1st Tee of Live Oak Golf Course! Nice front Screened Porch with great view. Home has a freshly painted interior, NEW kitchen, NEW bathroom, gas stove three years old. Great vacation retreat or live here year-round!!

Key facts

• St johns river
• Fenced
• Screened porch

Tags

• VIEW OF THE GOLF COURSE
• ST JOHNS RIVER
• SCREENED PORCH
• FENCED
• NEW SEPTIC AND DRAIN FIELD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.18 acres
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile home
• Exterior features: Property currently used for agricultural purposes; Other detached structures on the property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Electric oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.0% in Welaka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#878 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middleton-Burney Elementary School (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,046 students, 70% FRL); Putnam Academy of Arts And Sciences (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #291 of 571 statewide, top 52%, 177 students, 75% FRL, charter); Crescent City Jr-Sr High School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,005 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $100k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.06%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,224
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Golf Course St	0.43mi	2/2.0	840 (-3%)	1mo	$97,500	$116	73
101 Lemon Trl	0.41mi	2/1.0	784 (-9%)	5mo	$135,000	$172	59
122 Tennessee Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	4mo	$75,000	$78	56
231 Alabama St	0.60mi	2/1.0	912 (+6%)	8mo	$90,000	$99	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $42,400
• Equity at exit: $43,958

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $108,239
• Equity at exit: $67,144

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32112

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,193/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $517	+0% $489	+5% $461	+10% $433
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $431	+0% $489	+5% $547	+10% $604
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $514	base $489	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,500 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $99,500 Active
16. 2012-08-02
    soldstatus $25,000 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    GOLF LOVERS LOOK !!! Enjoy living on the 1st Tee of Live Oak Golf Course! Nice front Screened Porch with great view. Home has a freshly painted interior, NEW kitchen, NEW bathroom, gas stove three years old. Great vacation retreat or live here year-round!!

17. 2006-12-28
    listed $28,500 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    GOLF LOVERS LOOK !!! Enjoy living on the 1st Tee of Live Oak Golf Course! Nice front Screened Porch with great view. Home has a freshly painted interior, NEW kitchen, NEW bathroom, gas stove three years old. Great vacation retreat or live here year-round!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,193
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $4,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $4,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Welaka

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #23339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,200
• Population (ZIP): 8,099

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 30% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.86%
• Current HPI: 279.58
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+249.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $99,500 realMLS
• 2012-08-02 Sold (MLS) $25,000 realMLS
• 2006-12-28 Listed $28,500 realMLS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,193 · +355.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.