16804 Holbrook Rd · Shaker Heights, OH 44120

$195,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1938 7,601 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A true fixer on a tree-lined street in coveted Shaker Heights! Needs complete renovation but could be restored to a masterpiece! This is a great canvas to bring your vision and tools. Five bedrooms, living room, formal dining room, breakfast nook, downstairs office/den, two-car detached garage, and more!

Key facts

• 7,601 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1938

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.5% in Shaker Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#15 in OH, #134 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Shaker Heights City (suburban): math 50% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #309 of 656 in OH (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,441 units permitted in Cuyahoga County in 2024 (700 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,989/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2289% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cuyahoga County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,961 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $404,820
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16804 Holbrook Rd	0.00mi	5/3.5	2,340 (0%)	0mo	$180,000	$77	98
3281 Braemar Rd	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,164 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$150	73
17419 Fernway Rd	0.39mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,283 (-2%)	5mo	$375,000	$164	64
3269 Kenmore Rd	0.53mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,423 (+4%)	1mo	$451,000	$186	61
3287 Norwood Rd	0.70mi	5/3.5	2,402 (+3%)	2mo	$600,000	$250	59
3259 Avalon Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,078 (-11%)	3mo	$330,000	$159	56
17024 Fernway Rd	0.27mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,632 (+12%)	3mo	$565,000	$215	55
3339 Kenmore Rd	0.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,151 (-8%)	3mo	$373,000	$173	54
3305 Enderby Rd	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,023 (-14%)	1mo	$485,000	$240	53
3716 Rolliston Rd	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,481 (+6%)	4mo	$305,000	$123	51
3190 Warrington Rd	0.71mi	5/2.5	2,506 (+7%)	5mo	$412,500	$165	49
18231 Sherrington Rd	0.70mi	4/3.5 (-1)	1,995 (-15%)	1mo	$380,000	$190	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,157
• Equity at exit: $29,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,869
• Equity at exit: $16,938

Cash invested: $54,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44120

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,938/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,714

Max offer price $195,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $286	+0% $218	+5% $150	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $139	+0% $218	+5% $296	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $268	base $218	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,975
• Closing costs: $5,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16818 Kenyon Rd Unit 2 Shaker Heights, OH	4.0	1.0	1900	$1,900	$1.00	5d	1	0.27mi
17424 Winslow Rd Cleveland, OH	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,200	$1.10	17d	1	0.28mi
3579 Riedham Rd Unit Up Shaker Heights, OH	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,600	$0.97	44d	1	0.35mi
3710 Sudbury Rd Cleveland, OH	4.0	1.5	1665	$1,900	$1.14	44d	1	0.62mi
3634 Glencairn Rd Shaker Heights, OH	4.0	1.0	1612	$1,750	$1.09	24d	1	0.67mi
3636 Glencairn Rd Unit 2 Shaker Heights, OH	4.0	1.0	1612	$1,750	$1.09	24d	1	0.67mi
3614 Lynnfield Rd Shaker Heights, OH	4.0	2.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	17d	1	0.86mi
3653 Winchell Rd Unit 2 Shaker Heights, OH	5.0	3.0	1775	$2,350	$1.32	44d	1	0.87mi
2975 Claremont Rd Shaker Heights, OH	5.0	3.0	3241	$3,200	$0.99	12d	1	0.92mi
3665 Lynnfield Rd Unit UP Shaker Heights, OH	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,849	$1.16	44d	1	0.94mi
19601 Van Aken Blvd Shaker Heights, OH	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1977	$4,400	$2.23	22d	1	1.06mi
14108 Becket Rd Cleveland, OH	4.0	3.5	1660	$2,206	$1.33	44d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $195,900 Active
3. 2026-03-26
   historical
4. 2025-12-24
   listed $239,900 Active
5. 2025-02-27
   historical
6. 2024-06-03
   price $285,000
7. 2024-05-02
   listed $295,000 Active
8. 2023-08-08
   historical
9. 2023-04-17
   price $229,900
10. 2023-04-15
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,973
• − Property taxes: −$2,938
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$5,699
• Taxable loss: −$537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$129
• After-tax cash flow: $2,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shaker Heights City
• NCES district ID: 3904475
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,421
• Composite: 49.98/100
• National rank: #1928
• State rank: #309 of 656 in OH

Livability — Shaker Heights

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #134

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shaker Heights, OH
• County: Cuyahoga County · 1,090,369 people
• City population: 69,880
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 33,202
• Household income: $47,126
• Rent vs Own: 50.5% rent · 49.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Cuyahoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,244,621 people
• By 2030: 1,230,093 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 1,189,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 1,145,706 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 1,076,557 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 978,987 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 21% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cuyahoga

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.5) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.5 2020: D+34.1 2016: D+35.0 2012: D+38.7 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 108.2487
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-01 Listed $195,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-12-24 Listed $239,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-02-27 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2024-06-03 Price Changed $285,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-05-02 Listed $295,000 MLSNOW
• 2023-08-08 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2023-04-17 Price Changed $229,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-04-15 Listed $139,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,670 · +53.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.